In a recently approved government initiative, support was outlined to assist low- and middle-income borrowers facing mortgage payment challenges. As a result of rising Euribor levels, the overall cost to lenders remains uncertain over a two-year horizon, leading to partial relief measures. Analysts note that institutions with exposure to mortgage portfolios are already testing early estimates. Provisions are expected to adjust sector accounts in the range of several hundred million euros, according to multiple sources cited by this publication.
CaixaBank approved as first bank to join mortgage scheme
Following the agreement, negotiations progressed over the next two months between the Ministry of Economy and the major banks. The plan targets mortgages that fall within the relief framework and imposes private oversight for default risk, while avoiding automatic designation of borrowers as defaulters. Institutions will need to set aside small, targeted provisions. A key technical point concerns deferred principal under the grace period: the revised treatment lowers the loan value decrease to 0.5 percent, rather than 1 percent, which affects how certain loans are categorized in the risk framework.
Prediction range
Economy officials explained in an interview with this publication that the negotiations involve the Bank of Spain and revolve around an anticipated range of potential beneficiaries and the measurable impact on the sector’s accounts. Data collection from employers and lenders will continue after the legal text is published to enable more precise calculations by the involved organizations.
JBCapital, founded by Javier Botín, produced a report estimating the maximum potential impact at around 1.5 billion euros. The analysis suggests the measures could apply to mortgages up to one million euros, representing roughly 5.8 percent of the total portfolio. The projection emphasizes that, even in the most favorable scenario, the effect on banks would be moderate and manageable.
Another report, widely circulated, carries a title implying limited impact. It estimates that the measures would affect a minority of mortgage accounts, with about 7 to 8 percent of mortgaged homes eligible to benefit, translating to around two percent of total households. Other banking sources put the potential impact closer to 900 million euros.
Major banks have shown alignment with the plan, with BBVA confirming adherence in recent days. Participation is voluntary but becomes mandatory once joined. Institutions recognize that rising prices and higher rates could compel higher provisions, even if some banks prefer to negotiate directly with clients on a one-to-one basis. The government’s plan maintains the objective of constructive negotiations with clients while balancing the needs of lenders and the financial system. The broader political context includes support from allied parliamentary groups and partners within the executive branch, who advocate a collaborative approach to implementation.