Time is working against Ukraine. The funds needed to run the administrative apparatus and keep the government functioning are projected to run dry by March. A broad European budget package, including a 50 billion euro package, was proposed by Brussels to provide financial stability to Kyiv. Yet the decision rests with the prime minister, with Viktor Orbán the sole European leader opposed to a blank check for Ukraine and insisting that the ability to veto aid remain in place every year. Will Orbán be able to hold out much longer?
That question is on the minds of other European leaders as they gather in Brussels for an extraordinary summit at 10 a.m. to seek a solution that was not possible in December: an agreement on aid for Ukraine and a review of the four-year budget. A European diplomat hopes that wisdom and responsibility will prevail, but the room for maneuver for Orbán will only become clear once the meeting begins. There is a push to reach an agreement by the 27th, because that would be the most efficient way to allocate the funds, while a December reopening of the deal is off the table, said another senior official.
Thus, the text that will anchor negotiations remains the same as last December, with the same figures supported by 26 of the 27 European leaders. All except Orbán. The budget review contemplates a 64.6 billion euro increase, of which 50 billion will be directed to Ukraine in the form of 17 billion in subsidies and 33 billion in loans.
Gesture toward Budapest
To overcome Hungary’s veto, the compromise package includes a new paragraph promising an annual discussion on the implementation of aid to Ukraine over the next four years, drawing on the Commission’s report to guide the EU’s approach to the situation arising from Russia. A draft cited by EL PERIÓDICO of the Prensa Ibérica group contains the wording “war of aggression against Ukraine.” However, the package does not include Hungary’s demand that money sent to Ukraine be verified each year, a red line for many capitals.
During a preparatory meeting of EU permanent representatives, Hungary’s envoy expressed willingness to work intensively and constructively toward a solution but insisted that the annual review be unanimous. Diplomatic sources describe this as an establishing “annual veto mechanism.” They add that delegations largely share the view that the paragraph on reviewing practice is acceptable, but the insistence on maintaining veto capacity is not. This stance is described as the red line by almost all delegations.
Tension and pressure
The recent days have seen rising tension, with discussions perceived by some as blackmail after a Financial Times leak discussed the possibility of boycotting European economies if February 1 negotiations fail. Some countries have even floated activating Article 7 to suspend Hungary’s voting rights in the Council. Hungary’s prime minister stated on X that the compromise offer was met with Brussels’ blackmail and that his country will defend its interests. A European diplomat responded that the EU is not a memo distributed by someone else.
The core problem is patience. Many European leaders view the Ukraine war as existential and are growing frustrated. One senior official notes the high level of tension and disappointment, while another diplomat denies any plans to collapse the Hungarian economy. If Orbán does not concede, the remaining leaders are prepared to keep providing aid to Ukraine at the current pace. The negotiation is already long in the making; neither side can claim victory or total failure. A plan A exists, but a plan B remains on the table. The options are more cumbersome and complex because they require intergovernmental agreements and parliamentary approval, but they are feasible in principle.