Talk at the G7 face to face
The BRICS group is expanding. Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa will be joined by Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Ethiopia, the United Arab Emirates, and Iran on January 1, 2024. This enlargement signals a shift in global influence and adds a new dynamic to how major economies interact on the world stage. Analysts see the move as a response to Western leadership structures and a potential challenge to the G7 in a time historically marked by tech competition between China and the United States and ongoing geopolitical strains from Russia’s actions in Ukraine. Uncertainty lingers about how this broader BRICS might shape global governance and economic rules. Citation: Financial Times.
To calm concerns, Brazil’s president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva opened his participation in the summit with a message on X, formerly known as Twitter: BRICS is not a counterpower against the G7, the G20, or any other bloc. Lula’s stance is echoed by other BRICS leaders who want to project a cooperative image. Naledi Pandor of South Africa has stated that expanding the bloc would be a mistake if seen as anti-Western. India has likewise expressed a desire for a more inclusive international order and stronger cooperation with the Global South, while stopping short of pledging a broad expansion that could dilute current influence. Yet the push from these nations to balance Western interests against Moscow and Beijing creates a careful, ongoing negotiation at the table. Citation: European Council on Foreign Relations, Elcano Royal Institute.
Inside the discussions, the aim is to turn BRICS into a voice that rivals the G7 and counters Western dominance, a point reinforced by comments from a Chinese official cited in major outlets. If the bloc grows to mirror a large share of global GDP like the G7, the collective clout in international forums would grow substantially. At the same time, Russia seeks to expand markets and build resilience against sanctions tied to the Ukrainian war. The balancing act involves keeping coordination among diverse members while navigating competing national interests. Citation: Financial Times.
Conversations with the G7 in plain sight
Industry analysts argue that the biggest beneficiary of the expansion could be China, described by observers as a major winner in this reshaped landscape. A longer horizon view from the Royal Institute of Elcano, quoted in regional outlets, frames the enlargement as a strategic move that intensifies the ongoing struggle between the United States and China. Friends and critics alike see this as a continuation of the broader rivalry defining current geopolitics. The expansion raises questions about goals as ambitious as a proposed single BRICS currency, a proposal acknowledged as requiring time, different conditions, and political will. Citation: Elcano Institute, Royal Institute.
In this evolving scenario, the six new or potential members bring together roughly two-fifths of the world’s population, a sizable portion of land, and a significant share of global GDP. The BRICS formation began with a political focus at a 2009 summit in Yekaterinburg, a name coined by economists to reflect the rising influence of developing economies on global governance. The idea was to reshape political and economic rules to reflect this new weight, with South Africa joining later in 2011. If the bloc broadens to include more members, estimates suggest its influence in the world economy could reach about 40 percent, a figure that would certainly reshape the scope and balance of the Group of Seven. Yet those projections are fluid and depend on how member states align on policy, currency, and long-term plans. Citation: Goldman Sachs analysis cited in industry reports.
“Unified front” or a flexible coalition
The central question remains: will BRICS present a united front on global issues, or will internal differences complicate a common approach? European Council on Foreign Relations analyst Maddalena Procopio notes that while the bloc has projected a cohesive public stance on many topics, its internal divisions sometimes divert attention from EU priorities. Expansion into the Global South is viewed by Procopio as a way to diversify partnerships and broaden economic opportunities rather than as a straight challenge to the West. This shift could enhance BRICS’s international legitimacy and alter global economic and geopolitical patterns as currently understood. Citation: ECFR and regional interviews.
Analyst Carlos Malamud suggests that while the early phase will be telling, aligning the five original BRICS members with the new entrants will be a delicate process. China and India remain strategic rivals more than close partners in practice, and achieving grand ambitions like a common currency for BRICS would require substantial time and consensus-building. The path ahead is unlikely to be simple, and the bloc will need to prove its ability to function as a cohesive economic and political bloc rather than a loose association of interests. Citation: Elcano Institute.
Global South and potential benefits
Another layer of the debate concerns whether Global South nations will truly benefit from joining BRICS. Some observers note that the Global South is not a single, uniform bloc, with varied views on economics, the Ukraine conflict, and relations with the United States. The one clear gain could be access to the BRICS New Development Bank, offering a platform to secure development financing and expand financial participation in major projects. Citation: Elcano Institute and field analysts.
Supporters of inclusion argue that BRICS membership could enable these countries to raise their voices in global governance and pursue policies that reflect their priorities more directly, even if not in full alignment with Western preferences. The broader outcome will depend on how the bloc matures, enhances multilateral dialogue, and negotiates its place within the broader order. Time will tell whether BRICS fosters fairer cooperation or evolves into another pillar of global influence driven by power struggles among leading economies. Citation: ECFR and market analysts.