Bitcoin has been on an upswing, driven by the volatile world of cryptocurrencies. After a period marked by scandals and the usual market swings, the United States has reasserted its influence in recent weeks. Bitcoin rose by about 8.19% in value last month, a notable gain when compared with conservative savings products. Yet within the crypto space, certainty is scarce, and even seemingly positive news can carry mixed implications. The latest gains followed developments in the Middle East, illustrating how geopolitical events can ripple through digital assets.
Watch out for the ‘halves’
As of Tuesday, October 17, there are 182 days remaining until the next Bitcoin halving. The halving is a built-in mechanism that reduces the reward for mining new blocks by half every 210,000 blocks. Its purpose is to slow the rate at which new bitcoins enter circulation, and many analysts expect this event to influence the asset’s valuation. If Bitcoin trades near 26,000 euros today, forecasts range from modest increases to more aggressive scenarios. Some expect prices to push toward 30,000 euros per coin as new supply tightens, while others are more optimistic, suggesting possibilities as high as 130,000 euros, or even challenging psychological barriers around 300,000 dollars. For the average investor, caution remains prudent, because past performance does not guarantee future results for an asset with such distinctive dynamics.
Past trends
The next halving is anticipated between late spring 2024, with the reward dropping to 3.125 bitcoins per block mined. If demand stays steady and the supply of new bitcoins is halved, a price uptick could follow. Industry observers have noted that demand tends to rise in the run-up to halvings, a pattern suggested by Pantera Capital: historically, Bitcoin bottomed out roughly 477 days before a halving and then began to rally ahead of the event.
Regulatory concerns continue to weigh on the market. Analysts from Julius Baer point to ongoing legal proceedings surrounding major exchanges and consider regulatory developments a key driver of market sentiment in the near term. As global financial conditions grow more cautious amid geopolitical uncertainty, regulatory clarity is likely to shape price dynamics in the weeks ahead.
Beware of non-Bitcoin cryptocurrencies
Analysts at FxPro note a broader return of capital to the crypto space. The total market capitalization hovered around a trillion dollars, with Bitcoin maintaining a dominant share. While the overall market experienced some volatility, interest remained concentrated on Bitcoin, which accounted for a sizable portion of total capitalization—its leadership noted as the strongest since early 2021. If authorities recognize Bitcoin as the reference asset, its price could rise further, while several other crypto assets may not share the same trajectory.
International demand
A recent global survey by eToro highlights Bitcoin as the most popular asset on the international stage, with many holders allocating a meaningful share of their portfolios to this digital asset. The study identifies the United States, India, Nigeria, Vietnam, and Ukraine as leading adopters. Regions with tighter restrictions include Pakistan, China, and Morocco, where regulatory or policy barriers curb active participation. Increased regulatory oversight, particularly in Western markets, has tempered enthusiasm in some areas, yet in others, potential legalization could boost prices through stronger global demand.