Berlusconi, Meloni, and Europe’s Uncertain Path: A Closer Look at Italy, Britain, France

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Silvio Berlusconi speaks of renewing his friendship with Vladimir Putin. The former Italian prime minister says the Russian president sent him 20 bottles of vodka for his 86th birthday and a very kind letter, and Berlusconi replied with a can of Italian lambrusco wine. Leaked audio suggests Berlusconi also blamed Ukrainian leader Volodímir Zelenski and claimed his own actions helped trigger the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Known for a controversial career and a long record of lawsuits over corruption and other alleged offenses, this stance mirrors a pattern that complicates governance in Italy. After listening to the discussions, prime minister Giorgia Meloni set clear terms for cooperation with Berlusconi and Matteo Salvini: ministers in a three-party coalition must openly support Europe and NATO’s stance toward Kyiv. The two partners agreed, and Meloni, appointed by the president, formed an administration. Yet the arrangement publicly reflects ongoing tensions within a coalition that has faced repeated governmental instability, a familiar feature of Italian political life and a potential hurdle to united European responses to Russia’s challenge.

“England”

Across the eurozone, instability in Europe’s third-largest economy took a back seat to developments in Britain. Liz Truss’s resignation—the third British prime minister in five years—shook European foreign ministers who remain engaged in a broader confrontation with Russia. London has been a leading provider of financial and military aid to Ukraine and stands as a central financial hub in a moment of global economic uncertainty that weighs on working people across the continent.

Truss stepped down just after indicating she would not resign, insisting she was a fighter rather than a quitter. Within 45 days in office, a sharp reversal of an impulsive tax plan created upheaval. The British ambassador suggested that the tax-cut narrative may have been difficult to explain and that growth expectations were not met.

The policy shift toward lower taxes faced scrutiny, while markets faced volatility. Sterling weakened, stock indices fluctuated, and a macro-tax policy minister was replaced with someone advocating a contrasting approach. The timeline of events left the United Kingdom in a tense political moment, with the potential for further leadership changes and a domestic debate over elections, high prices, and slow growth. The energy crisis—oil, gas, and electricity—along with inflation in food and other essentials, compounds the burden on European households. Experts note that these pressures existed before the Ukraine conflict, but the war has intensified the price pressures and policy responses in many countries. One analyst described the situation as an earthquake for many people in Europe. (attribution: Frederic Mertens, Wilmars Professor of International Relations, European University of Valencia)

Commentary in publications such as The Economist has framed Britain’s political crisis as part of a broader pattern of instability. The country continues to grapple with governance challenges, while the wider European scene faces energy and inflation pressures that influence public policy and markets. The UK’s path ahead remains uncertain, with debates about elections, leadership legitimacy, and the right balance between growth and stability.

In broader European discourse, observers note that energy costs and inflation are central to the strain on ordinary Europeans. The Ukraine conflict is a key factor in the energy and price dynamics, but analysts point to structural issues that predated the war and continue to shape policy choices across the continent. The overall picture features a mixture of sanctions, price pressures, and strategic repositioning as European countries navigate a difficult winter and a slower pace of growth.

France

Emmanuel Macron faced the need to push through the 2023 budget, sometimes bending procedures due to a lack of an absolute majority in the National Assembly. Street protests and public demonstrations responded to energy concerns and the fear of supply disruptions, with comparisons drawn to past energy crises. Some observers describe the current energy context as a new form of gas embargo, tied to sanctions on the Kremlin regime and to the broader effort to reduce Russia’s influence in European energy markets.

Analysts describe a broader European trend in which several states navigate political strain while seeking to maintain stability. A German MP and others have described the wider situation as an earthquake affecting many people, with Sweden representing a notable case of political shifts within a traditionally stable system. The Kremlin reaction to European political shifts remains pointed, with social media commentary reflecting a continuing narrative on East-West dynamics. Commentators caution that European stability depends on policy coherence and practical responses to energy costs and security threats. (attribution: Carmen Kolomina, CIDOB)

Today, only a couple of major European economies, notably Spain and Germany, experience stable coalition governments. Madrid and Berlin coordinate closely on bilateral and regional matters, while Brussels faces ongoing discussions on energy costs and policy alignment. Observers emphasize that Europe’s path forward will depend on winter management and the ability to balance growth with social resilience in the face of volatility across energy and geopolitical fronts.

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