Recent data point to the near-Earth object known as Asteroid 2023 DW, with a diameter about 49.3 meters, as a potential risk for Earth on February 14, 23 years from now. This assessment is provided by NASA and is continually refined as new observations come in.
Current calculations suggest the asteroid will pass at roughly 1.8 million kilometers from Earth. Yet, given the narrow margins in orbital models, a collision remains conceivable. If such a collision were to occur, it would not threaten all life on the planet, but it could trigger evacuations across a sizable region to reduce risk to populations and infrastructure.
Researchers are actively updating the asteroid’s orbital parameters. At present, 2023 DW stands as the sole object identified with a credible chance of hitting Earth within the foreseeable future. NASA estimates the collision probability at about 1 in 560, while the European Space Agency places it around 1 in 625, reflecting different modeling approaches and data inputs.
The object is moving in solar orbit at a speed near 25 kilometers per second and sits about 18 million kilometers from Earth at the moment. Forecasts for 2046 through 2054 project as many as ten close approaches, with the potential for a direct encounter if orbital paths align. In response to the possibility of impact, NASA has proposed a mission concept involving impact probes designed to nudge the asteroid’s trajectory, a strategy that reflects lessons learned from planetary defense demonstrations.
There is a historical radar image associated with near-Earth asteroid 2011 AG5, illustrating how radar techniques can reveal shape and motion information that informs risk assessments and mitigation planning. [NASA] [ESA] [JPL] [Radar Observations]