According to data from Business Insider, Washington has lately shown heightened focus on the Arctic, gearing up to defend its geopolitical interests there. To that end, combat readiness and operational training have intensified. The command also faces the task of acclimating soldiers and leaders to the polar environment, which includes very low temperatures, heavy icing, dramatic seasonal daylight shifts from round-the-clock sun in summer to total darkness in winter.
Beyond the Arctic perimeter, major powers from the basin nations—America, Russia, Canada, Norway, and Denmark—are joined by others such as China, expanding their presence in Arctic affairs. Beijing has stepped into Arctic activity, and it remains unclear whether it coordinates with Moscow or pursues a distinct plan. China seeks a sustainable Arctic footprint to enable future commercial shipping when conditions permit.
In summary, polar science has increasingly intersected with economics, fueling intense political debate among Arctic-bordering states. Moscow operates the world’s largest icebreaker fleet, fortifies bases, airfields and naval facilities, enhances fighter and air-defense cover, and modernizes radar reconnaissance.
World War II experience
When considering the potential for armed conflict in the Arctic, it helps to reflect on historical experience. Combat in this region is exceptionally challenging due to terrain and climate. For instance, during the defense of the Soviet Arctic, German Army units near the Sredny Peninsula failed to break through the Musta-Tunturi ridge under harsh winter conditions, with some units succumbing to freezing temperatures and extreme winds.
Naval and air operations in the Arctic were more intense. In 1942, Operation Wunderland saw the German heavy cruiser Admiral Scheer engage Russia’s northern port Dikson, causing damage to facilities along the Kara Sea coast. The ship later faced destruction in 1945 after a nighttime air raid that rendered it unable to recover.
Additionally, the submarine campaigns left an impact. U-601 and U-255 targeted polar stations, while U-251 surfaced near Solitude Island and damaged supply depots. Polar explorers and weather stations faced bombardment, yet some installations continued to operate.
Another notable episode occurred at Ambarchik, where submarine-launched operations met with stiff resistance as shallow waters and ice hindered landing attempts. The end of 1942 saw heavy damage to village infrastructure from aerial and naval actions.
Later, in 1944 and 1945, several German submarines were involved in operations that included reconnaissance plays and attempts to influence convoys, with mixed outcomes. The broader pattern showed recurring Arctic raids by Kriegsmarine forces, and strategic assets like weather stations and supply bases were repeatedly targeted across the region.
In the wider historical context, anchorages and submarine routes stretched across the Yenisei delta, the Gulf of Ob, Franz Josef Land, Novaya Zemlya and numerous Arctic islands, as well as coastal areas of the White, Barents and surrounding seas.
“It will not be a major operation”
Future conflicts in the Arctic are unlikely to mirror the large-scale terrestrial campaigns of the past. Still, expected are coordinated naval and air operations, with raids by small detachments of special forces on a broad scale.
Russia has actively expanded its Arctic military infrastructure over the past decade, and other Arctic-bordering states appear to share similar trajectories. The Arctic remains a zone of intense competition, a point emphasized by officials who see the region as strategically significant.
Comments in public forums underscore that this assessment reflects views on strategic importance rather than a fixed forecast.
Author note: To maintain clarity and objectivity, the author’s identity is not disclosed in this summary.