The current anticyclonic pattern is set to push pollution levels higher, with nitrogen dioxide and fine particulate matter increasing through the end of next week. In Madrid, Barcelona, and at times in Seville, Bilbao, Algeciras or Murcia, persistently high atmospheric pressure could trap pollutants close to the ground, according to Meteored.
Early in the year the anticyclone will linger into the coming days and lead to worsening air quality in several peninsula cities.
According to Meteored, a researcher and disseminator named Samuel Biener noted interior high pressure reaching roughly 1,035 hectopascals. This atmospheric setup is likely to elevate concentrations of nitrogen dioxide and PM2.5 particles—the latter being those with diameters under 2.5 microns.
Biener explains that air tends to stagnate during anticyclones, trapping pollutants and triggering surface inversions with limited wind and minimal air exchange. The result is a dome of unhealthy air that does not dissipate quickly.
Madrid and Barcelona most affected
The cities anticipated to experience the sharpest pollution increases are Madrid and Barcelona, where nitrogen dioxide could reach around 50 micrograms per cubic meter, exceeding the healthy benchmark set by health authorities and well above the recommended 25 micrograms per cubic meter threshold.
Madrid and Barcelona may see PM2.5 levels that rival the higher ends of the World Health Organization guidelines, with air quality slipping as the week progresses.
Biener notes that similar NO2 patterns could recur in Seville, Bilbao, Algeciras or Murcia; meanwhile, parts of the Valencia region, Alicante, Córdoba, Granada and Avilés-Gijón are expected to approach 30 micrograms per cubic meter.
It is estimated that more than 75 percent of nitrogen dioxide in urban areas comes from road traffic. This pollutant contributes to ozone formation and to other airborne contaminants such as PM10 and PM2.5. In practice, PM2.5 is likely to remain elevated for most of the week in several parts of Spain.
Regarding PM2.5, Meteored forecasts point to high concentrations in the Valencia Community, Murcia, Andalusia and the northern central plateau with values over 50 micrograms per cubic meter likely for much of the week in Madrid and Barcelona as well as the Ebro valley and some Cantabrian cities.
Analyses suggest that the situation could begin to ease during the weekend when regional circulation strengthens and westerly winds become dominant. The arrival of precipitation ahead depends on fronts moving from west to east.
Biener warns about the health risks posed by both pollutants. Elevated nitrogen dioxide levels are linked to respiratory infections, lung irritation and reduced lung function, with pronounced effects on children under six, the elderly and pregnant women. PM2.5 particles can infiltrate the respiratory system, settle in the alveoli, and may even enter the bloodstream, posing serious health concerns.
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