Average electricity price in Turkey has shown a notable dip this week, as the wholesale market eased by about 4% on Wednesday compared with Tuesday. The price slipped below 190 euros per megawatt hour (MWh) for the first time in June, signaling a potential shift in the market dynamics.
On Wednesday, the average price stood at 185.45 €/MWh, according to data from the Iberian Energy Market Operator (OMIE) and compiled by Europa Press. This marks roughly an 7.87 €/MWh drop from Tuesday, when prices averaged 193.32 €/MWh, highlighting a modest but meaningful downward move in the short term.
For the day of June 8, the market anticipated a peak of 215.01 €/MWh between 09:00 and 10:00, while the daily trough was expected around 160.23 €/MWh between 17:00 and 18:00, illustrating the typical intraday volatility that characterizes wholesale electricity pricing.
Compared with the same day a year earlier, the Wednesday average would be more expensive by about 125.25%, with the 2021 figure recorded at 82.33 €/MWh for June 8. This contrast underscores the persistent upward pressure on prices over the past year, even as daily movements show brief reliefs.
Pooled price levels continue to influence the regulated rate known as PVPC, which covers roughly 11 million households in the country and serves as a benchmark for the 17 million consumers who are supplied through the free market. The PVPC framework thus remains a central reference point for consumer bills and market expectations.
In 2021, the National Markets and Competition Commission indicated that about 1.25 million people moved from PVPC to a fixed-price rate in the free market, reflecting a broader trend toward price certainty amid ongoing volatility in energy costs.
Data from Facua-Consumidores en Acción on the evolution of the PVPC shows that the average electricity bill last May reached 120.68 euros, up 46.9% from 82.13 euros in the same month a year earlier. The May bill represented the sixth highest monthly total in the history of the regulated rate, illustrating the ongoing financial strain on households amid rising energy prices.
Gas cap awaiting approval
In mid-May, the Official State Gazette (BOE) published a Royal Decree outlining the mechanism to cap the gas price used for electricity generation at an average of 48.8 €/MWh over a 12-month period, a measure designed to temper energy costs into the next winter. This policy aims to stabilize retail prices while securing supply resilience for the coming colder months.
Although the decree has been published, the final implementation depends on an official decision from Brussels and will be executed through an Ecological Transition order. The framework seeks to balance price relief with market incentives to ensure reliable generation capacity when gas markets tighten.
Under the calculations presented, the government expects the PVPC-regulated rate to bear a discount cap of about 15.3% during the 12 months following the gas-cap’s application for electricity generation from natural gas. This calculation is referenced in the legislative decree reviewed by Europa Press and outlines the intended path for consumer bills.
For industrial customers who face the spot market directly, the government estimates a reduction in the first month of the mechanism ranging from about 18% to 20% in the bill. In subsequent periods, the projected reductions hover around 13% to 17%, with variations depending on market conditions and consumption profiles. These projections reflect a mixed impact across sectors as the gas cap takes effect.
Despite the optimism surrounding the policy, Teresa Ribera, the minister responsible for the Ecological Transition and Demographic Challenge, acknowledged some uncertainty in precisely calculating the price decline once the gas cap goes into effect. The administration’s forecast is that the price will fluctuate within a 15% to 20% range as the mechanism begins to influence market dynamics and consumer bills.