Alicante Citrus Campaign Forecast: Strong Prices, Water Worries, and Growth Prospects

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Everything points to a strong citrus campaign in the province, marked as a potential standout in the last decade. A market squeeze caused by reduced production and pest pressures in South Africa and Argentina is pushing prices higher. This trend could push Alicante producers toward a business volume surpassing 400 million euros. The only real uncertainty for farmers is water scarcity. When paired with intense heat, water limits may affect fruit size.

The outlook for Alicante’s citrus season is optimistic, a view shared by José Vicente Andreu, president of Asaja-Alicante, who oversees growers in the Torremendo area. He explained that problems facing the main competitors, especially South Africa and Argentina, are creating tighter supplies. He noted that both countries are contending with pests that curb harvests and hinder marketing. Consequently, European markets appear undersupplied, generating strong demand for lemons, oranges, and tangerines.

Yet it is not only overseas rivals feeling pressure. Andreu also pointed to drought in Andalusia driving very low production there. The Valencia region faces its own declines tied to reduced plots and aging farming with insufficient intergenerational succession.

The anticipated harvest for Alicante contrasts with the global trend, with an expected total around 900,000 tonnes, divided into roughly 450,000 lemons, 300,000 oranges, and 150,000 tangerines. The resulting market dynamics create favorable conditions for price increases that Alicante manufacturers hope to capitalize on. While a formal price quote is still pending, officials expect levels that protect farmers while remaining affordable for consumers.

Under these assumptions, lemons and oranges could trade between 40 and 45 cents per kilogram, with tangerines at higher levels and around 55 to 60 cents per kilogram. Altogether this could yield a turnover above 400 million euros. The key advantage, Andreu stressed, lies in entering markets with clear supply gaps and active buyer interest in distribution channels, suggesting a promising campaign ahead and potentially one of the best in years.

The lemon harvest is projected to begin around September 20 due to market shortages, about a month earlier than usual. Andreu noted that once lemons begin to juice, picking can start even before full size, while oranges and tangerines require full ripeness, with harvest for the latter starting around October 25.

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The primary concern for Alicante growers remains fruit calibers. Heat waves, aggravated by limited water flows from the Vega Baja river and the Tajo-Segura transfer, increase irrigation needs. Andreu warned that heat drives higher water use and could necessitate more frequent irrigation checks. The situation will unfold in the weeks ahead as growers monitor temperatures and rainfall ahead of harvest.

Agriculture is also driving export growth from Alicante despite broader industry stagnation. In a similar frame, Luis Gómez, a producer with fields in La Murada, concurs with the upbeat assessment. He observed that market scarcity will likely push prices higher, supporting a favorable season.

Andreu further questioned whether all farmers can share in the gains. He explained that extreme heat can lead to smaller calibers and that limited water forces trees to conserve resources rather than feed the fruit. This uncertainty is a major factor as the season nears. Yet Gómez believes those reaching target sizes will see strong results and notes that prices appear poised to perform well. There is cautious optimism about the year ahead.

Authorities have started paying attention to irrigation and disease control. In July, Agriculture Minister Jose Luis Aguirre sent a letter to Minister Luis Planas outlining worries about pests and diseases in plant products imported from third countries and urging a review of phytosanitary import requirements. The document also called for scrutiny of EU trade agreements with major producers and economic blocs to prevent pest introductions. Aguirre highlighted first pest incidents in some South African fruits and urged responses in terms of treatment regimes as needed.

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