If Abdelmadjid Tebboune’s government approves next year’s defense spending plan, Algeria could take a significant leap forward. In a world growing more volatile—spanning Russia’s war in Ukraine and regional strains with Morocco—Algeria has put forward a 2023 budget draft that boosts military outlays dramatically. Total defense expenditure is set to rise from 9,300 million euros in 2022 to 23,200 million euros, representing about 15% of the GDP.
The North African nation is accelerating its trajectory to assume regional military leadership, at least in terms of spending. The planned figure would place Algeria on a level with Israel and well ahead of Morocco and Spain, based on official data for each country. Details of Algeria’s defense budget remain tightly held as state secrets.
What explains this sharp uptick? One analyst cited in El Periódico de España suggested the move is unlikely tied to Morocco Western Sahara tensions or Spain-Algeria frictions. Ekrem Kharief, an Algerian military analyst who had access to the confidential budget report, indicated the increase is driven by the global context and the war in Ukraine. The implication is that Algeria must rapidly acquire equipment from Russia, prioritizing a purchase cycle completed in one year rather than five.
President Abdelmadjid Tebboune is expected to visit Moscow before year’s end, as noted by the Kremlin. Russia, historically a primary supplier of defense matériel, is anticipated to finalize or announce a major arms agreement with Algeria during that visit.
Joint Algerian-Russian military exercises in the Mediterranean are scheduled over several days, with at least one Russian minesweeper reported to have reached the port of Jijel, roughly 400 kilometers south of Menorca.
Anti-aircraft systems and fighters
Analysts estimate that 23.2 billion euros will be allocated to weapon acquisitions described in the confidential file accessed by Kharief. The Algerian Armed Forces urgently need to replace aging Russian S-300 air defense batteries, more than ten years old, a system widely used to challenge Western air superiority in several theaters.
There is also a push to upgrade or modernize combat aircraft. Algeria operates more than 60 of the advanced Sukhoi Su-30 fighters, while rumors suggest the Royal Moroccan Air Force could pursue more capable jets such as the Su-57, a contender to rival F-35s, should the United States permit a sale.
Russian Ministry of Defense
The forthcoming purchases are expected to spark controversy. Some U.S. lawmakers are considering sanctions on Algeria for buying Russian weaponry, echoing past actions against Turkey for similar defense deals. Those tensions echo broader U.S. cautions toward countries aligning with Russia, Iran, or North Korea in the arms market.
Rising tensions with Morocco?
The main question is whether a stronger Algerian military posture could intensify rivalry with Morocco. Diplomatic relations were severed in August 2021 amid allegations of spying and cyber surveillance, drone activity, and support for Saharawi independence groups. Both nations have long faced off over border disputes and regional influence. Algeria is ranked the 31st strongest army in the Global Firepower index, while Morocco sits lower, highlighting the regional gap in capability.
There are signs of potential de-escalation. The Moroccan king agreed to attend the Arab Summit in Algeria on November 1, a gesture some see as a step toward rapprochement. The move comes as Spain seeks to mend ties with Algeria after Madrid’s stance on Western Sahara triggered a diplomatic row. Experts caution that while tensions have eased somewhat, the situation remains fragile, with both sides insisting there will be no war.
Analyst Ekrem Kharief commented that the current balance could move toward a more stable relationship, noting the range of possible outcomes from cold peace to cautious cooperation. He added that the two governments have told the United Nations they do not anticipate open conflict for now.
Moves toward Mali
More than 5,000 million euros of the defense plan fall under logistics and general support, suggesting a focus on sustaining overseas operations and power projection. Analysts believe this could indicate greater Algerian involvement in Libya or the Sahel, not necessarily through direct military intervention but through enhanced logistical support. This would align with regional efforts to counter terrorism and stabilize neighboring countries, even if some locally allied groups complicate the picture.
Spain has troops in the area, and Western security efforts face challenges from Islamist militancy. Financial questions have arisen about coordinating with France, Spain, Germany, and the European Union. The French military presence has wound down in parts due to shifts in alliances with local authorities and non-state actors like mercenary groups aligned with Russia.
About 9 billion of the Algerian budget targets current expenditures, including costs tied to civil-military pensioners and veterans from past conflicts. The government has long sought to address the legacies of a brutal civil war, and the new funding could be aimed at stabilizing those affected while maintaining readiness for potential domestic or regional challenges. The defense plan signals a broader aim to project strength while navigating domestic social and political pressures.