In its latest stability target tracking document, updated this Friday, AIReF states that the review shows data that is more positive than expected, especially in the second installment of corporate tax.
By combining this data, AIReF reports that tax collection is 2.4 percentage points higher than previously estimated for the current year, with notable gains from personal income tax at 16.2 percent, corporate tax at 22.5 percent, and value-added tax at 16 percent. The overall projection suggests a rise of 12.9 percent in total receipts. These figures reflect adjustments based on recent activity and the evolving fiscal environment, signaling a stronger-than-forecast tax buoyancy through the mid-year period.
Public deficit continued to decrease in recent months, adds AIReF, noting that while the current trajectory is positive, a slight deterioration is anticipated toward the end of the year due to the ongoing implementation of relief measures.
The revision of the estimate concentrates on the central Administration, with the 2022 deficit now estimated at 3 percent of GDP, four tenths below the previous estimate. The Social Security deficit for the year is projected to be higher by 0.5 percent of GDP, while autonomous communities are expected to see a 1 percent of GDP shortfall. The document does not provide data for local governments or local administrations, focusing instead on the larger, systemic components of the public sector balance sheet. These shifts underline how fiscal policy choices, relief measures, and economic resilience interact to shape the government’s near-term fiscal path. Marked data from AIReF confirms the ongoing adjustment process and helps set expectations for budgetary planning in the months ahead. (Source: AIReF ongoing review; attribution retained for context)