AI model predicts Alzheimer’s risk years before symptoms at UCSF

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Researchers at UCSF unveil an AI model that flags potential Alzheimer’s years before symptoms emerge

A team from the University of California, San Francisco has introduced an artificial intelligence model that can anticipate the onset of Alzheimer’s disease up to seven years ahead of visible clinical signs. The findings were published in Nature Aging, a respected scientific journal.

Alzheimer’s disease stands as the most prevalent form of dementia, commonly affecting individuals aged 65 and older. It manifests through a spectrum of neurological changes, including progressive memory loss, dwindling cognitive function, and the accumulation of amyloid-beta plaques and tau tangles in brain tissue.

Early detection holds the promise of altering the disease’s trajectory and reducing its impact. In the study, the neural network was trained on large-scale electronic medical record datasets drawn from UCSF Medical Center, enabling the model to identify signals associated with future Alzheimer’s risk. On evaluation, the AI demonstrated an ability to predict disease onset in about 72 percent of cases.

The study highlights several risk factors that appeared to influence predictions across genders, such as high cholesterol, hypertension, and vitamin D deficiency. In men, additional clinical indicators included erectile dysfunction and prostate enlargement, while in women, osteoporosis surfaced as a noteworthy marker.

Beyond Alzheimer’s, the researchers envision applying the same AI approach to other challenging-to-diagnose conditions, including autoimmune disorders like lupus and gynecological conditions such as endometriosis.

Earlier work referenced new approaches to drug delivery for Alzheimer’s disease, illustrating a broader effort to leverage technology in the fight against the condition. The current study adds to that momentum by showing how data-driven methods can reveal early risk patterns and potentially guide proactive care.

Overall, the UCSF effort underscores the potential of machine learning in transforming how dementia risk is understood and managed, offering a path toward earlier intervention that could improve quality of life for patients and families.

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