AENA has increased its passenger traffic forecast for the year, projecting a range between 75% and 85% of the 2019 levels. The update was shared with CNMV on Friday, signaling a cautious yet improving outlook compared with an earlier estimate around 68%. The revision reflects a steady recovery in air travel across its network of airports, driven by a gradual return of demand as travel restrictions eased and consumer confidence rebounded in both the United States and Canada as well as Europe.
At the close of May, AENA-operated airports posted a notable, though uneven, recovery in passenger activity. Total passenger volume stood at 22.26 million, which is 9.6% below pre-pandemic figures. For the first five months of the year, traffic reached 80.62 million, implying that approximately 80.1% of the traffic recorded in the same period of 2019 has been recovered. This trajectory illustrates a rebound that is strong in some hubs while lagging in others, mirroring seasonal patterns and the varying travel demand across regions.
Executives highlighted that the forecasts are subject to potential changes and depend on inherent risks and uncertainties. While acknowledging the lack of visibility for the last quarter of the year, the estimates are grounded in the available seating capacity offered by airlines, indicating that seat supply remains a key driver of the traffic perspective. This approach aligns with industry practice, where passenger numbers closely track airline capacity and utilization rates, rather than relying solely on historical traffic trends.
During May, 208,745 aircraft movements were recorded, representing a robust 97.6% recovery relative to 2019 levels. Cargo operations stood at 83,022 tons, a 3.2% decrease from the same period in 2019, reflecting ongoing shifts in freight demand and the composition of air cargo. The monthly data underscore the dual nature of the recovery: strong passenger activity in many airports alongside a stabilizing, yet imperfect, cargo sector.
The overall May passenger tally reached 22.20 million, with commercial passengers accounting for 15.08 million—an indication of travel demand returning in both international and domestic segments. International passenger activity declined 12.4% versus May 2019, while domestic travel fell by 2.9%. The divergence between international and domestic routes highlights the uneven pace of normalization, influenced by travel policies, consumer sentiment, and regional economic conditions across the Americas and Europe.
Among the leading hubs, Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport recorded the largest May passenger count at 4.32 million, marking a 17.1% decrease compared with May 2019. Josep Tarradellas Barcelona-El Prat followed with 3.81 million passengers, down 18.4% from 2019, while Palma de Mallorca saw 3.12 million (a slight 2% dip). Malaga-Costa del Sol registered 1.85 million passengers (down 3.2%), and Alicante-Elche Miguel Hernández handled 1.27 million (down 9.3%). These figures illustrate the geographic spread of the recovery, with major hubs continuing to rebound while secondary markets experience varying degrees of demand pressure. [Source: CNMV briefing on May traffic performance and forecast revisions.]