Fate had it that the 39th AECOC Congress for Consumer Goods opened the day after September inflation data was published. The event, organized by Spain’s most representative business association in this sector, began with a keynote where the president spoke with new-found certainty about inflation. He stated in clear terms that the inflation crisis is behind the industry. He cited September’s 1.5 percent rise in the cost of living and the 1.8 percent increase in food prices, and he forecast that inflation would run below the general rate and hover near zero or even dip into negative territory in the coming months. The AECOC leadership presented a message of resilience and cautious optimism about the near future.
Yet that optimism will not instantly translate into a 30 percent drop in the shopping basket. Prices for certain items continue to rise, notably in meat. Raúl Marín, chief executive of Familia Martínez, a producer of sausages, ground meat, and some ready meals for Mercadona, acknowledged at the congress that the price trend for beef products remains upward, while other segments show stabilization rather than decline. For now, there is no drop in sight for consumer staples.
Isabel Sánchez, CEO of Delaviuda, the confectionery house behind El Almendro and Cacao Sampaka, argues that a quick return to pre-crisis price levels is unlikely in the short term. She notes that cacao and chocolate inputs remain expensive, keeping finished products at current levels or nudging them higher. Sánchez believes that cacao prices are unlikely to fall soon, implying that December price increases for some products may be unavoidable.
The Olive Oil Case
However the case of olive oil is even more dramatic. Gonzalo Guillén, general manager of Acesur, the group behind Coosur and La Española, reported that olive oil prices have surged by roughly 300 percent over the past three years. He expects some relief soon as the harvest improves, but he does not foresee a return to the 2020 or 2021 price levels. He explained that stock management and the need to ensure supply until the next harvest have kept prices elevated, and a springtime decline is possible if weather cooperates.
Regardless, the trajectory would allow part of the audience to win back customers who left when olive oil prices rose above five euros. Guillén noted that the earlier exodus happened when prices spiked, and subsequent fluctuations did not reverse the trend. While last year volumes declined by about a fifth, this year the company has already recovered much of the lost ground, thanks to renewed demand and strategic pricing.
Looking ahead, industry observers do not expect a sudden collapse in demand despite higher prices. The AECOC president ties consumer confidence to wage growth negotiated through collective agreements, suggesting that real income improvements will drive the recovery rather than deflation alone. The sector anticipates that improved purchasing power will support a gradual rebound in consumption as households adjust to the new price landscape.
The Customer Is Still There
On the consumer side, there is a sense of staying power. There is little fear that the slow price correction will spark a broad consumer rejection of everyday goods. The AECOC president stresses that rising wages in line with collective bargaining have given households more purchasing power. The recovery seems linked to income growth, not just the absence of inflation, and Spain is expected to regain a level of purchasing power similar to what it enjoyed before the pandemic.
Delaviuda executives highlight a Christmas effect and the universal appeal of chocolate. The Delaviuda leader says the season is shaping up to be favorable for the sector. She points to lower interest rates and a cooling inflation rate as factors that should lift family budgets and encourage more festive shopping. If current data remains positive, the holiday campaign could be a healthy boost for the confectionery market.
Overall, voices from the congress suggest a steady path forward rather than a dramatic rebound. While price stabilization may slow the descent of consumer prices, it should bolster confidence and sustain consumption through the crucial year-end period. The consensus is that the real test will come as wages, savings, and confidence align, guiding the pace of the recovery for households and retailers alike.