The average electricity price is set to rise for regulated rate customers this Monday, driven by movements in the wholesale market. In Spain, the nodal price for electricity reached 80.31 euros per megawatt hour (MWh), marking an increase of about 70 euros from the Sunday minimum of 10.63 euros/MWh observed on Christmas Day. This shift reflects ongoing volatility in wholesale trading and its impact on the final bills paid by consumers under PVPC tariffs and other indexed rate plans.
Analysts note that despite a sharp uptick forecast for the coming day, the price level observed one week earlier, on Monday December 19, stood at 96.41 euros per MWh in the wholesale market. The fluctuation highlights how daily variations in supply and demand shape consumer costs in the near term.
Looking back to December 25, 2021, price levels were substantially higher, with the average price reaching 188.53 euros per MWh. Such historical comparisons underscore the extent to which market conditions can swing within relatively short periods and influence long term expectations for energy bills.
In the Iberian pool, the average light price for Monday settled at 77.32 euros per MWh, with a minimum of 24.10 euros/MWh recorded between 03:00 and 04:00 and a maximum of 189.26 euros/MWh between 19:00 and 20:00. These provisional figures come from the Iberian Energy Market Operator (OMIE) and have been reported by Europa Press. The day’s pricing demonstrates how hourly dynamics create wide gaps in potential costs faced by households and businesses.
Additionally, the pool price is complemented by a compensation component of 2.99 euros per MWh on Monday. This supplementary charge is typically financed through adjustments impacting consumers who benefit from regulated PVPC rates or indexed-rate plans, regardless of whether they are in the free market. Provisional data indicate that this component will be reflected in consumer bills, reinforcing the need for households to monitor both wholesale movements and tariff structures.
Absent an Iberian exception mechanism to cap gas costs used in electricity generation, the overall price trajectory suggests that electricity in Spain could average around 129.25 euros per MWh in the near term. This would translate to about 48.94 euros per MWh more than the compensation level that would have reduced bills for those on regulated rates by roughly 37.86 percent. The divergence between wholesale costs and consumer relief underscores ongoing pressure on affordability for households and small businesses alike.
The Iberian mechanism, which took effect on 15 June, establishes a framework intended to smooth the impact of high energy prices by limiting gas costs for electricity generation to an average of 48.8 euros per MWh for twelve months. The measure is designed to bridge the gap during the harsher winter period when energy demand grows and supply constraints can tighten. This arrangement aims to provide a degree of price stability for a significant window while market conditions remain unsettled.
Specifically, the policy tool outlines a path for natural gas pricing for generation, beginning with a rate around 40 euros per MWh for the initial six months and then transitioning to a monthly adjustment of five euros per MWh until the measure’s end. The resulting price path seeks to balance energy security with consumer protection, offering a predictable framework amid fluctuating wholesale prices.