More than 15 million Chileans will go to the polls this Sunday to decide whether to approve or reject a new constitution intended to replace the one drafted during the dictatorship. The text arrives on the 50th anniversary of the upheaval that toppled Salvador Allende, a moment marked by a constituent council backed by the far right and other conservative forces. Recent polls suggest voters may reject the proposal, though uncertainty lingers and the outcome remains open. Supporters see the referendum as a chance to express dissatisfaction with the current left-leaning government as well as a desire for a new constitutional framework. Among voters, a segment of the population holds a cautious, sometimes skeptical view of Boric and his administration.
“Boric voted against, Chile voted for!” is a slogan repeated by supporters of the proposal. The far-right influence in the region has echoed into the Chilean referendum, drawing parallels with other populist movements. Those urging a no vote, spanning the left and center-left, carry banners featuring former presidents Ricardo Lagos and Michelle Bachelet. They argue that the 17-chapter, 216-article document is more reactionary than the 1980 constitution it seeks to replace.
Polls show a gap in support that has fluctuated, with some days indicating a widening lead for rejection. Yet in recent days, the percentage favoring the proposal has shown signs of improvement, feeding talk of a surprising close or even an unlikely victory for supporters. Commentators warn that a favorable result would represent a significant political shift, potentially reshaping the balance of power between left-leaning factions and conservatives. If the proposal passes, the government and the National Congress would be tasked with overseeing its implementation.
Four key years in review
The last quartet of years has been transformative for Chile. A social surge against neoliberal policies gathered momentum, fueled by calls for a constitutional convention in which the left holds influence and opposition faces limited veto power. Boric’s election enlarged the bargaining space for progressive ideas, but the ensuing political climate saw a shift in momentum away from some of those early promises. The Magna Carta and its strong progressive aims faced strong resistance in September 2022, while the body charged with drafting a new charter took on a different ideological character. The political scene began to talk about fissures and factions around leadership figures such as José Antonio Kast, whose influence has persisted even after losing the presidency.
Rumors and portraits abounded about Kast’s family ties and the broader political lineage that conjoins figures from varied eras. He has asserted that the new proposal should satisfy a majority of Chileans, though some in his ranks have indicated a preference for a broader, more exclusive consensus. Others in the conservative camp have argued that the aim was never to pursue broad agreement, and public commentary has reflected a tension between strategic messaging and constitutional clarity.
Text features under debate
Former president Sebastián Piñera has weighed in on the new Magna Carta, arguing that it strengthens freedom, security, and property while expanding the state’s role in public order, social rights, and macroeconomic stability. The draft also includes voices from centrists, with former president Eduardo Frei weighing in, concerned that the document might narrow fundamental rights and hamper gender equality. Critics warn that the text could reintroduce risks in areas such as reproductive rights and criminal justice reform, suggesting that elements valued in the current constitution might be weakened.
The discussion includes concerns from experts who believe the proposal could hamper debates on public education by favoring the private sector, complicate progressive tax design, and threaten gains in women’s autonomy. Some argue that the bill places undue emphasis on business organizations as primary actors in social life and could weaken unions by limiting the right to strike.
The sociologist Felipe Ruiz Bruzzone has suggested the draft may constrain future policy on public education and tax reform, while potentially falling short of contemporary global standards on environmental issues. He notes that the proposal appears to tilt the balance toward private interests and may complicate robust, broad-based democratic debate.
Scenarios and reflections
Counterpoint coverage notes that either outcome could signal a broader failure: a constitutional text agreed upon by large political and social majorities may still fall short of ratification. Some observers describe the moment as a historic missed opportunity, while others warn that a rejection could leave the country with unresolved questions about governance and direction. If rejection prevails, a fresh moment of political reckoning could follow, with implications for policy and party strategies alike.
Over the four years since mass demonstrations against Pinochet-era rules, public sentiment has shown signs of fatigue and apathy. Surveys reveal that a sizable portion of citizens may feel detached from the stakes, while education, healthcare, immigration, and crime remain persistent concerns. If the current process is rejected, the likelihood of another constitutional effort in the near term could be reduced, though not eliminated, depending on future political calculations and social bearings.