Spain’s economy confirmed greater momentum in the second quarter ahead of schedule, According to the final data released by the National Institute of Statistics (INE) this Friday, it is up 1.5% compared to the January-March period, well above the 1.1% predicted in July. On a year-on-year basis, the increase also rose to 6.8%, compared to an estimated 6.3% in July.
Provisional data point to a higher rate of activity in the April-June period than originally anticipated, resulting in consolidation from July to September. Gezi. They understand from the government that the data confirms “the strength of the Spanish economy’s growth, driven by national demand and exports.”
The unknowns are revealed in the fourth quarter. Some analysts are already pointing to a possibility. recession (two quarters in a row) will depend on the evolution of inflation, the duration of which is currently one of the variables of greatest concern. In the least pessimistic situation, it will run between the fourth quarter of this year and the first quarter of next year.
this increase in the general level of prices starting with (10.5% in August) Energytransferred to the economy as a whole, and especially foodsIt has accumulated an almost 14% increase over the past month.
In a recent meeting with journalists, IESE professors said: Xavier Vives Y Peter Videla He predicted the possibility of a recession, the depth and duration of which would depend on various factors such as the increase in the general level of prices and the development of prices. war in ukraine. For now, a positive evolution has been consolidated between April and June thanks to the resurgence of private consumption and the good performance of tourism, especially after the bad data in the first quarter. CaixaBank Research.
The government forecasts gross domestic product (GDP) to grow by 4.3% this year. The last panel of the Fundación de las Cajas de Ahorros (funcas), maintains its forecast of 4.2% growth this year, prepared by forecasts from 19 research institutions and services, “a sharp slowdown in GDP over the last two quarters: +0.1% in the third quarter and -0.2% in the fourth. According to the panel, the slowdown in 2022 is affecting the 2023 forecast, which fell six-tenths to 1.9%.
work service BBVA It keeps Spain’s growth at 4.1% in 2022 and revises 2023 to 1.8%. The main reason for this is the scarcity of some raw materials and the effect of rising prices on inflation.