The Russian invasion of Ukraine brought the threat of nuclear war to the fore. But what would effects a nuclear war on the planet? A new scientific study published in the journal AGU Developments provides detailed information on the global impact of such a disaster. Other research shows that a nuclear conflict between the United States and Russia would cause 5,000 million deaths.
The study’s lead author, Cheryl Harrison, an assistant professor in the Louisiana State University (LSU) Department of Oceanography, and her colleagues ran multiple computer simulations to study the effects of a nuclear war on Earth systems. atomic arsenal. Nine countries currently control more than 13,000 nuclear weapons in the world.According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.
As the simulations analyzed show, the firestorms that would trigger nuclear explosions would release so much soot and smoke into the upper atmosphere that they would block the Sun and great crop failure leading to a worldwide famine. In the first month after the nuclear explosion, average global temperatures will drop by about 10.5 degrees Celsius, A larger decline than recorded during the last Ice Age.
“It doesn’t matter who bombs who. It could be India and Pakistan or NATO and Russia. Once the smoke spreads into the upper atmosphere, it spreads globally and affects everyone,” Harrison warned.
Ocean temperatures would drop rapidly and would not return to its previous state even after the smoke cleared. As the planet cools sea ice will expand to about 10 million square kilometers and a depth of 1.8 meters. Beijing’s Tianjin Port, Copenhagen and St. In some basins near major ports, including St. Petersburg.
Sea ice would normally spread to ice-free coastal areas, thus hampering shipping in the Northern Hemisphere. makes it difficult to send food and supplies to some cities like Shanghai, where ships are unprepared to cross the sea ice.
Particularly from the Arctic to the North Atlantic and North Pacific oceans, the sudden drop in light and ocean temperatures will kill seaweed, the foundation of the marine food web, and create what can be considered widespread oceanic ‘scarcity’. , which would leave most species without food. This situation it would have destroyed almost all fisheries and aquaculture.
In fact, oceans take longer to recover than land. In the most dire scenario of a US-Russian conflict, the ocean would likely take decades to recover at the surface and hundreds of years in depth, while changes in Arctic sea ice are likely to take thousands of years, leading to a ‘Small Nuclear Ice’. Age’.
The darkened atmosphere would block out sunlight.
To achieve these results, the researchers simulated what would happen to Earth systems if the United States and Russia used 4400 100-kiloton nuclear weapons to bombard cities and industrial areas. The result was widespread fires that would discharge 150 teragrams or more. 148.5 billion pounds of smoke and soot into the upper atmosphere. They also simulated what would happen if India and Pakistan detonated about 500 100 kiloton nuclear warheads: They would write 5 to 47 teragrams, or 5 to 46 billion kilograms of smoke and soot, into the upper atmosphere.
“Nuclear war has dire consequences for everyone. World leaders have used our work before in the 1980s as an impetus to end the nuclear arms race and to ratify a treaty banning nuclear weapons at the United Nations five years ago. We hope this new study will encourage more countries to ratify the ban treaty, said co-author Alan Robock, Distinguished Professor in the Department of Environmental Sciences at Rutgers University.
This study demonstrates that Earth systems are globally interconnected, particularly in the face of large-scale disturbances caused by volcanic eruptions, major forest fires or wars.
“The current war in Ukraine and how it affects gasoline prices shows us how fragile our global economy and supply chains are in the face of regional conflicts and disruptions,” Harrison said.
Other catastrophic events, such as volcanic eruptions, also produce clouds of particles in the upper atmosphere. In fact, throughout history these explosions have had negative effects on the planet and civilization similar to atomic explosions.
Harrison explained that little can be done to prevent a major volcanic eruption, but to stop a conflict with atomic weapons. “We can and should do everything possible to prevent a nuclear war. The effects are very likely to be catastrophic globally.”
5 billion deaths: half of humanity
Another recent study even measured potential victims of a large-scale nuclear fire. 5 billion people will die inside nuclear war The impact of a global famine caused by soot blocking sunlight in the atmosphere would likely far outweigh the losses caused by deadly explosions.
Scientists at Rutgers University have identified the implications of six possible scenarios of a nuclear conflict. A Full-scale war between the United States and Russiain the worst possible case, will destroy more than half of humanityin detail in the study published in the journal Nature Food.
Reference work: https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2021AV000610
……
Environment department contact address:[email protected]