Chileans are preparing for their day of vertigo: on Sunday, September 4, they must decide a person’s fate through voting. constitution emerging in the heat 2019 social explosion and accompanied by widespread sympathy that began to wane as the most progressive foundational text in Latin America was being drafted. If the polls are correct, the option “Refusal” will be applied with a difference of six to 10 points. Such a result contains paradox Inexplicable to some: two years ago, amid the embers of protest, 80% of citizens expressed their desire to have a Magna Carta at the ballot boxes that would end the institutional vestiges of the General’s era. Augusto Pinochet (1973-90). This was not the only political curiosity of the moment: ‘no’ to a Constitution prepared under the dominance of left-wing conventionalists brings together those who are nostalgic at this time. dictatorshipthe moderate right and even a section of the centre-left that fought the dictator in the 1980s.
The Gabriel Boric Government attributes some of its prestige to a cause that polls believe has been lost:I approve”. But around the 36-year-old young president, they believe the electoral dispute will be more even than advisors predict. Marta Lagos, director of the Latinobarómetro, is a “great invisible mobilizationThis may change current estimates. The interest of 12 million Chileans in knowing where to vote on September 4 invites caution. in 2020. “If 12 million people vote, we face a participatory revolution. A brutally democratic movement… same result”, Lagos said to the portal Counter.
multiple scenarios
Marco Moreno, dean of the Faculty of Political Sciences at the Central University of Chile, says: four possible scenarios. first, character devastating, unexpected by the polls and in favor of the vast majority of Magna Carta. One second when the polls are approved. “Red” wins by a narrow margin, which forces us to define a new constitutional process. Moreno is also a victory by a smaller distance for “Apruebo” and finally a uncertainty and conflict that ‘no’ wins and the right pulls the handbrake in case of any future changes.
Meanwhile, the election campaign is intensified, not always with clear rules of the game. A recent “Rejection” ad reminded how full the road was. disinformation and fake news. A young man allegedly committed to male prostitution claims he was the target of a violent act by a client. “If we had loved each other more in Chile, we would not have approved the text of the Constitutional Convention. It is a text that is not made with love and always ends badly.” It was immediately known that he was not a sex worker: just an actor, who even announced on social networks that he was participating in deception.
Supporters of “Apruebo” are trying to regain the enthusiasm that infected millions of people in 2019. Writer Patricio Fernández later joined this flood and later became part of the Convention that drafted the text. The narrator and journalisttotal failure“If ‘Red’ was imposed, ‘a process in which all convinced democrats should be involved’ would begin. Chile, he said, was not expected by a disaster. But for Fernández, this defeat could have been avoided. A political mistake, too rigid right-wing sectors willing to participate in this construction. was to marginalize in a way”.
What awaits Boric?
The President urged to amend aspects of the Constitution that generate more rejection if “Consent” is won. “I see the risk of September 4 or 5 being what it was for him. Sebastian Pinera On November 12, 2019, political scientist Daniel Mansuy told the magazine clinic. “What if rejection wins? What role will he play? What power will he have to take the initiative? With whom will he continue to rule?”
For now, the government spokesperson, Camila VallejoHe denied that the Government was considering convening a new constituent plebiscite if the requests were not met. He stressed that this would be “unnecessary” because a “very clear and overwhelming majority” was in favor of having a new core text in 2020. We certainly hope that both government parties and all parliamentarians will join in to outline different scenarios to give people more peace of mind no matter what happens on September 4th.”