60% of fires recklessness serious or mild. But who is reckless? What is your behavioral portrait robot? Using a mathematical algorithm, a Civil Guard tool profiles the potential perpetrator, usually over the age of 46, adapted, self-employed, rural resident, and without a criminal record.
The year 2022 has broken the downtrend of the last decade and the area burned so far this year is almost 300,000 hectares That’s already three times the annual average, according to data from the European Forest Fire Information System.
In fact, he had already surpassed that in June, as Commander-in-Chief Andrés Sotoca. Criminal Behavior Analysis Division of the Forensic Police Technical Unit (UTPJ) Civil Guard.
Designed as a result of the fire wave that devastated Galicia in 2006, this vehicle was designed by Sotoca, whose purpose was to help clarify the author of the fires. “crime” and that destroys the evidence.
An example of this challenge: Of the 8,780 fires recorded in 2021, about half a thousand author(s) were identified.
To assist the investigators, the Civil Guard turned to this vehicle. Environmental Attorney it also wants to apply 3,012 forest fire cases whose perpetrators have been identified.
A lot of police officers are already coming to Sotoca. hypothesis the profile of the author of the fire they are investigating. With the data provided, the commander draws up a report that is involved in the proceedings.
Why do fires occur?
As the commander recalled, 60 percent of forest fires are caused by negligence, 38 percent of which are minor negligence, that is, accidental fires that the author took responsibility for and even participated in its extinction.
severe (the other 22 percent) recklessness) the author escapes the space and hides his action.
another 20 percent calling fires “frivolous” or pathological; about 10 percent are provoked for profit and 4.7 percent for revenge.
To these groups are also included arsonists, who should not be confused with arsonists and represent a small percentage of the total. They enjoy watching the fire and you even turn it off and have an overwhelming burning desire.
This is how the tool divides fire types. the perpetrator was arrested or investigated.
However, for those who are convicted of these crimes, these rates are reversed. These prisoners52 percent can be classified as “frivolous” arsonists, 20 percent reckless, and 16 percent for profit.
52% of this “meaningless“, 8% are arsonists and another 44% suffer from some form of mental or personality disorder and are consumers of narcotic substances or above all alcohol.
behavioral profile
Which one ‘robot sketch arsonist’s behavior
this mathematical algorithm allows the system to draw a fairly tight profile of the arsonist. While the profile is unique for each situation, the following types can be summarized:
1.- Serious negligence. The system gives the profile of a man over the age of 46, adjusted, married, self-employed, active in the field, without a background and without psychological problems.
He usually does the imprudence with a single source of fire starting near a farmland, in the morning or afternoon, in the spring, autumn, or winter. Does not use accelerator or retarder. Witnesses are people who report or warn of a fire.
2.- “Senseless” arsonists. Her profile is also that of a man, but in this case he is under 46, single, separated or widowed. You are unemployed or have a low income, live alone and do not have many friends.
The crime is committed at night, in the summer, and has multiple spotlights in a high-risk area. He goes there on foot because he lives nearby.. And it begins to burn on a road or road near the forest mass. Neighbors report the fire. The author neither stays in place nor helps to disappear.
He usually uses a lighter or artifact, has done it before, and is a competent man. psychological treatment people who use and act under the influence of drugs or alcohol, or both.
3.- To burn for an economic benefit. A man is also a self-employed man who lives in a couple, has basic education, is well-adjusted, and earns between 600 and 1,200 euros per month.
It moves in autumn and winter, open multiple focus, IA fire starts on the road for livestock or hunting purposes, and a fire that starts near a bush area is not easy to trace.
He also usually lives in the same town as the fire, driving to the scene in an SUV, use a lighter or something similar and sometimes it is he who warns the fire. Or neighbors. Usually a “serial” arsonist.
4.- For revenge, approx. Commander Sotoca says there aren’t many cases so the sample is still too small to draw a more accurate profile. Even so, with what exists, the ‘behavioral robot portrait’ is very similar to that of ‘nonsense’.
But in this case, he is more maladjusted and has little social contact. He has a criminal record, too.