The State Meteorological Agency (AEMET) believes that the summer of 2022 will “most likely” be the “hottest” in the historical series starting in 1961. Even when considering climate reconstructions from historical data, will be the summer with the highest average temperature since at least 1916, Adds AEMET.
This is the main conclusion drawn from an article published on the official blog of this organization and compiled by Europa Press, where the summer of 1915 is not stated to have been hotter than the current summer. With the studies carried out, there has not been an example of a hot summer like the present in at least 106 years.
The article reminds us that since records were found, June was the fourth-warmest month, July was the warmest month (beyond 2015), and the first two weeks of August 2022 were the second-warmest two weeks in the series, surpassing only 2003 . Also, temperatures were above normal in Spain last May.
Thus, the quarter consisting of May, June and July of 2022, i.e. one month corresponding to meteorological spring and two months to meteorological summer, has been hotter than 60% of summers in Spain since 1961.
Specifically, there have been several warm periods in Spain since May 1, with some cold peaks, usually short and not very intense, except in the third decade of June. There was also a cold episode for the season in mid-August, but it will likely end on August 19 or 20.
Moreover, there have been three heat waves this summer. The first, which began on June 11, tied early with the earliest to date, which began on June 11, 1981; the second is characterized by its great intensity (the most intense heatwave ever recorded in Spain), its geographical extent (forty provinces affected in August 2012) and its duration: from June to July 2015 lasting eighteen days, i.e. twenty-six days. second longest period. If the period from May 1 to August 15 of each year of the historical series is analyzed, then the aforementioned period of 2022 is the warmest since at least 1950.
Besides the heat, the last three and a half months have been extremely dry: the same period for which temperatures were analyzed (May 1 to August 15, 2022) was also the driest since at least 1950.
Same way, The Mediterranean has lived for a very long time with extremely hot surface waters, temperatures are clearly above normal. Since 12 July these waters have been very close to or above the extremes of the series, so AEMET points out that it is also possible to speak of a marine heat wave in cases where there are periods lasting more than five days. the water temperature of the sea water is between 5% of the highest recorded values.
heat and drought
As such, one of the most notable aspects of summer 2022 has been the persistence of unusually high temperatures, both on land and at sea, along with a lack of precipitation. Since temperatures are very high, relative humidity is very low (especially in heatwave segments) and fuel (vegetation), both phenomena, heat and drought, have led to a very conducive environment for the emergence and spread of greedy wildfires. very dry.
For all these reasons, AEMET, this summer 2022 will likely be the hottest year in the historical series, although he states that we will have to wait for it to finish to confirm this. In any case, the soot states that this summer is a high-temperature summer with very little precipitation, and when it occurs, it passes in the form of storms that can reach very severe or even showers and accompanied by hail. In general, it is rains that do not help excessively to alleviate the drought.
There are also many dry stormsthat is, where most of the precipitation does not reach the ground, but can be accompanied by strong wind gusts and an abundance of electrical equipment that can start a fire.
Likewise, there have been explosions, some Tragic consequences as in Cullera (Valencia) during the Medusa FestivalA young man died and many were hospitalized as some of the stage structures and other parts of the venue collapsed due to strong winds, a phenomenon often associated with the presence of warm, dry air in the low and middle layers from the troposphere.
In short, the authors of the article conclude that this year’s summer was marked by heat waves and drought. When both occur at the same time, they are extreme weather events called compound extremes.
A warning of what’s to come
In the case of heat and drought, one phenomenon feeds the other: high temperatures cause increased evapotranspiration, reducing water availability for plants and drying up the soil; when this soil dries, all the energy from the sun is used to heat the surface; if moisture is present, some of the energy is used in evaporation and therefore the temperature does not rise very much.
In this sense, AEMET concludes: The summer of 2022 is a warning or preview of the kind of summer that will become commonplace. In the geographic setting of the mid-21st century. The summer, like 2003 or 2022, the most extreme to date, will be much more frequent, even in a moderate emissions scenario, a “new climatic normality” we are already experiencing, the article said.
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