In September 2021, two months before Russia began massing troops and armored vehicles on Ukraine’s borders, its army The largest military maneuvers in recent history. Near 200,000 soldiersSupported by hundreds of tanks, warplanes, missile systems and 65 warships Battle scenes in Belarus and western Russiaan exercise to show muscle NATO borders. in countries balticsAccustomed to getting cold every time Moscow sneezes, few ignored the arithmetic that emerged from these maneuvers: the forces deployed by Russia. multiply the number by 50 Number of troops deployed by NATO Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania.
These imbalances are well known among the Alliance army stationed in the Alliance army. Adazi Latvia basea wooded area to the north Riga crossed by a river and connected to the Baltic. Spanish troops deployed. “This is sized to save time. If Russia enters, we are 1000 here.. This is a fact that does not go unnoticed”, says Lieutenant Colonel Fernando Fuentesal, head of the Spanish rotating contingent. “We are here to explain that NATO has not forgotten the Baltic. our function to talk and in case of attack, defend. we could withstand the first attack to buy some time and then deploy. But to think that 1,000 soldiers here and 3,000 in the rest of the Baltic could beat a million. In an office on the base, Fuentesal is neither me nor anyone else,” he admits.
On Saturdays and weekends, there is no maneuvering at the base, where there is a relaxed atmosphere. Its a kind of urban planning war museum. Armored vehicles and tanks parked in front of the office barracks are surrounded by barbed wire and all-seeing cameras. Some soldiers are dressed as civilians, smoking in the sun, and others are walking orderly into the dining room. Logistics working days. Multinational base association – some 1,700 soldiers from 11 countries, including 506 SpaniardsThe last change of troops, which rotate every six months, two years after Russia annexed the country, since NATO created this interim post in the Baltic in 2016. Crimea Ukrainian and hostilities began donbas.
concrete threat
This first hit is replaced by a Concrete threat across the region After the occupation of Ukraine. A war that not only exposes the vulnerability of the small Baltic states, most The most fragile part in the NATO shield, but gave weight to the arguments of its leaders. Some leaders have maintained for years that their security is far from being guaranteed by the plans the Alliance has implemented so far. And the truth is, as the Estonian prime minister announced days before the Madrid summit, the plans consisted of: Let Russia take the three countries Before it begins its release after 180 days. “If you compare our size with Ukraine, this means: the complete destruction of our countries and our culture,” Prime Minister Kaja Kallas told the Financial Times in June.
This concern was also reflected in the surveys. A survey conducted in May, e85% of the Latvian population fears the invasion of Moscowwho had already assimilated these “provinces” during tsarist empire and reoccupied them for half a century. Soviet Union. A set of circumstances that compelled NATO to react again by increasing its forces across its entire eastern flank. At the Madrid summit, where their leaders identified Russia as “the most important and direct threat facing the Allies”, they accused Russia of wanting to create it. “zone of influence” They announced the biggest skill increase in their history, based on forcing and artillery.
Of the 40,000 soldiers the Alliance needs to react quickly in the event of an attack 300,000. And will create in parallel new “battle groups” on its southeastern borders. It already exists in Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia and Poland, and they are all in the following sizes. battalion (up to about 1,500 soldiers), others to be added Bulgaria, Romania, Slovakia Y Hungary. “What changed with the war in Ukraine is the relevance of the mission,” says Lieutenant Colonel Fuentesal. “NATO has shown that it wants to defend every inch of its territory by reinforcing its eastern flank.”
Fewer Russian soldiers near the Baltic
But for now, expectations of the baltic states These have only been partially fulfilled. In Madrid, no announcements were made about the intentions of battalions already deployed to become or form divisions, tripling the number of troops deployed. Alliance bases in your area become permanent. brinjal where his troops are located Vladimir Putin Gives them some time in Ukraine. “Since the war started, there is less of a direct threat in the short term,” Fuentesal explains. “The forces previously deployed to the Baltic borders are now Belarus or in Ukraine. They moved south.”
But there is a prevailing opinion among regional leaders that once Russia has the ability to pull itself out of Ukraine and rebuild its army, it will come back for them. NATO is the only life insurance they have, a NATO that Putin joins, but it can separate them. war fatigue and troublesome economic results “If Latvia were not part of the Alliance, our destiny will be writtenLatvian MP Edvins Snores tells this newspaper. “It would be the same or worse as Ukraine because we were much smaller and we probably have the largest percentage of the Russian population outside of Russia in the entire world.”