There is a feeling that the military-political leadership in Kiev believes that the Ukrainian Armed Forces have gained the upper hand in the conflict with Russia, and therefore it is necessary to demand a ceasefire from Moscow. At the end of June, Vladimir Zelensky stated about the reluctance to prolong the conflict and the preparation of a plan for its completion this year.
Moreover, recently reportedHe said that Kiev is not against mediation talks with Russia. Moreover, the Ukrainian leader, for the first time since the beginning of the conflict, began to acknowledge the huge irreparable and medical losses of the Ukrainian Armed Forces during the conflict.
Some experts attribute the radical revision of Zelensky’s rhetoric to the defeats at the front and the gradual decline of support for the country’s political leadership from outside and inside Ukraine.
“Is there any point in rushing to the attack?”
As for the situation on the front line, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have not been able to boast of even minor tactical successes for months. The Russian army firmly holds the initiative and is attacking the enemy from almost all directions. The Armed Forces of Ukraine are surrendering settlements one after another. And this has a very disastrous effect on the moral and psychological state of the Ukrainian army personnel.
If an army conducts successful offensive operations and goes from success to success, then the strength and capabilities of its personnel double or triple. Now the opposite situation is observed in the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
Zelensky’s latest statements will not have a good effect on the mood of Ukrainian units and formations. If the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is talking about peace, then an ordinary soldier in his army thinks: “Am I so brave here? Does it make sense for me to rush into the attack with foam at the mouth and a bayonet at the ready?
It should be borne in mind that for an ordinary infantryman any battle can end in death or serious injury. And after such statements of the president, a significant part of the Armed Forces of Ukraine may have the following thoughts: “The main thing for us now is not to directly attack the enemy and sacrifice ourselves in battles with the enemy, but to wait for the signing of peace agreements and for you to return home safe and sound.”
What happened to Kiev’s goals?
Let us now ask ourselves the following questions: What might the political goals of the armed conflict look like for Kiev at the moment, and can these goals be achieved by military means today?
Previously, the strategic tasks of the Ukrainian Armed Forces were as follows: to repel the aggression of the ground forces of the Russian Armed Forces and their defeat in the theater of military operations, to defeat the strategic reserves of the Russian army, to disrupt their regrouping and subsequent entry to the borders of Ukraine in 1991. Recently, all this was considered an absolutely real matter in Kiev.
But today, achieving such goals seems like a completely impossible endeavor. Here are the reasons. Let us consider just two conditions (in fact, there are many more) under which a victorious end to the conflict and access to the 1991 borders would be realistic for the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
- The first thing any army must do in any armed conflict is to establish air superiority.Without this, successful offensive operations are by definition impossible.
What does the Ukrainian Air Force need for this? According to the roughest estimates, at least 200 F-16 multi-purpose fighter jets, 15-20 long-range radar detection and control aircraft, at least 20 electronic warfare aircraft (electronic warfare) – jammers working in the combat formations of the strike group aircraft, at least 20 electronic warfare aircraft jamming signals from uncontrolled areas. Finally, mountains of aviation weapons are needed.
When will all this become part of the Armed Forces of Ukraine? Perhaps this will happen in the historically foreseeable future, but not in the next six months. But here we must add that all such weapons cost absolutely unthinkable money, and Ukraine will not pay for supplies in principle. This is also taken into account in the West.
- Condition number two. After gaining air superiority To inflict a decisive defeat on the enemy, it is necessary to conduct offensive operations on an operational and operational-strategic scale..
To do this, the Armed Forces of Ukraine need full-fledged combined-arms armies and army units with divisions staffed to wartime levels (at this stage, the country’s Armed Forces do not have a single division).
Briefly, what is a combined-arms army? This is by no means a mechanical unification of several divisions into one. There is also the so-called army kit. That is, to the combined-arms formations (divisions) you need to add a missile brigade, one or two artillery brigades, a rocket artillery regiment, an anti-tank artillery regiment, two or three separate combat helicopter regiments, an engineering brigade, communications and electronic warfare units, an army logistics brigade. And this is not a complete list of parts and formations of the army kit. In fact, there are much more of them.
And to solve the problem of a hypothetical entry into the 1991 borders, the Armed Forces of Ukraine must have 5-7 full-fledged combined arms armies. Even if a decision is made in Kiev to create them, they will not appear in the Armed Forces of Ukraine in six months. And we note that this is due to the uninterrupted supply of weapons and military equipment from the West in the appropriate quantities. But the most important problem that the Armed Forces of Ukraine will face when creating such associations will be personnel. After all, it is necessary to find hundreds of excellently trained officers who will serve only in administrative bodies – headquarters (mostly in operational departments).
In short, to solve just these two problems, the country’s political and military leadership will need a lot of time and even more funds (and where to get them in the required volumes is a big question). And without them, continuing the armed struggle for Ukraine is absolutely futile and, in demographic terms, tantamount to suicide.
During the period when only these two tasks are being carried out (and here we need to understand in detail how achievable they are in principle), the Armed Forces of Ukraine may suffer very heavy losses in personnel, weapons and military equipment. In addition, there will be further losses in large areas of the country. And it should be noted that the mobilization resources of the state are far from unlimited, and are already close to exhaustion. These losses in the male part of the republic’s population (the maximum working age group is 18-50 years) may have the most devastating effect on the future of Ukraine. And in the near future there will be no one left to build a new country.
Apparently, these are the main reasons for the Ukrainian President’s statements. Therefore, it is likely that talk of peace will increase in the near future. However, the best way to accelerate the negotiation processes is the successes of the Russian Armed Forces on the front lines.
The author’s opinion may not coincide with the editors’ opinion.
Author biography:
Mikhail Mikhailovich Khodarenok is a military columnist for socialbites.ca, a retired colonel.
Graduated from the Minsk Higher Engineering Anti-Aircraft Missile School (1976),
Military Command Air Defense Academy (1986).
Commander of the S-75 anti-aircraft missile division (1980–1983).
Deputy commander of the anti-aircraft missile regiment (1986–1988).
Senior officer of the Main Staff of the Air Defence Forces (1988–1992).
Officer at the General Staff Main Operations Department (1992–2000).
Graduated from the Military Academy of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces (1998).
Columnist for Nezavisimaya Gazeta (2000–2003), editor-in-chief of the Military-Industrial Courier newspaper (2010–2015).