Government expects a tourist boom in summer despite blow in inflation

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The government accepts one summer with one summer. rapidly increasing demand for tourism business in spain. The forecasts handled by the manager are going through a high season with a very strong recovery in international tourist arrivals (almost) without reaching pre-pandemic levels, and a very strong recovery of national client-related business surpassing pre-Covid summer 2019 levels. “Let’s live a summer like before”, sentences Fernando Valdés, Minister of State for Tourism.

Last year, the tourism sector, still in the throes of successive waves of coronavirus, relied on the strength of demand from Spanish customers to kickstart the recovery, but is now also seeing a significant improvement in foreign tourist-related business to boost activity after tourism. the end of international travel restrictions and controls.

The manager is guessing Pre-pandemic recovery of 89% of international tourists registered in 2019When record levels are reached based on confirmed airfare reservations for July and August (more than 80% of international passengers arrive in Spain by air). In addition, it is also possible to purchase airline tickets for domestic flights. 3% growth in domestic passengers compared to pre-pandemic levels in the middle of the high season.

“The domestic tourist’s commitment to domestic destinations once again, along with the return of the international visitor, will ensure that we will have a summer like the previous ones in this 2022,” the Foreign Minister said in a meeting with the press. . “The desire to travel to Spain this summer has not changed, showing the resilience of our country’s tourism model even in the current context of rising prices.”

And that’s your guess Ministry of Industry, Trade and Tourism and Forwardkeys groupThe tourism intelligence data provider does not recognize and does not recognize that illegal inflation (up 10.2% in June, the highest rate since 1985) has had an impact on the expected consumption of tourists. in the months after summer. inflation currently does not disable request. “The data do not point to the effect of inflation,” he said.

In the heat of the resurgence, airlines and hotels are managing to push their rates above pre-pandemic levels amid the boom in tourist demand, but also amid rising costs caused by rising inflation. In any case, the government sees the increase in the prices of tourism companies as a result, not a cause. inflationary pressure. “The responsibility is not in tourism, but in the energy crisis, which has led to price increases in the entire value chain and in all sectors. Tourism is just one of them,” the Foreign Minister said.

Champagne effect?

The tourism industry admits that the summer has broken records, but it does not hide its fears that the so-called ‘champagne effect’ will emerge: a boom in consumption during the high season fueled by the desire to travel post-pandemic, but eventually fading away soon after, due to fatigue and doubts about the overall economic situation.

Since Exceltura sectoral lobby that brings together the thirty largest groups (for example, Meliá, NH, Riu, Iberia, Globalia, Renfe or Amadeus) general uncertainty about the economic impact as the evolution of activity in the last quarter of the year is unknown and will depend on the impact of inflation on consumption due to the change in interest rates and the impact on families’ pockets and how the war in Ukraine unfolds.

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