56.1% of experts, business people and executives surveyed in the PwC Economic and Business Consensus state that: Demand is not yet sufficient to increase production, with 32 percent saying “necessary skilled workers are not available”According to the latest edition of these interviews, which are conducted quarterly by the consulting firm with a panel of 450 experts. The results of the latest edition were obtained from 114 responses collected between February 19 and March 8, 2024.
In the area of macroeconomic figures, participants are more optimistic. Surveyed panelists predict that GDP will grow 1.7 percent in 2024 and rise to 1.9 percent in 2025. More than half of survey respondents expect rates to be below 3.5% in June 2025. Experts and managers revised their activity growth forecasts upwards for the coming months.
The consensus reflects a change of heart from panelists who became much more pessimistic about the economic situation at the end of last year. While the rate of those who evaluated the current situation as good increased from 32.6 percent to 45.9 percent, the rate of those who expected this situation to be better or the same in the second quarter of 2024 increased by over 70 percent.. For next year, 82% predict activity will increase similar to this year.
rate drop
Behind the optimistic forecasts is the expected decline in the ECB’s per-couple interest rates. 53 percent of panel experts and managers expect three to four declines of 0.25 percentage points between now and June 2025, when they believe the price of money will fall below 3.5 percent from the current 4.5 percent.As long as inflation continues to show signs of weakening and the ECB perceives the need to fight the recession in Germany. Panelists think that inflation in Spain will close 2024 at 2.5%.
As for the situation of families; Only 28% believe they are doing well, with the majority (66%) predicting this is normal and will continue to be so over the next six months.. The cost of the shopping cart due to inflation and high interest rates that make loans expensive are the two factors that affect the domestic economy the most. Despite this, 64 percent of those surveyed declare that consumption will remain stable and there will be a slight improvement in housing demand: Those who expect it to decrease drop from 74.7 percent to 40 percent. The answers vary as panelists respond regarding the economic-financial health of the companies. 52% rate the economic situation as “good” and 48% as “fair”, but no one says it is bad. Next quarter, 73% expect things to stay the same.
Artificial intelligence
This latest edition of the Economic and Trade Consensus is dedicated to learning the views of experts, business people and managers on productive AI and its impact on the world of work. Most people say they still don’t implement it on a daily basis, but up to 77.2% believe it would have a major impact on productivity and 65.3% on the labor market.However, they state that this will not affect social equality. However, for now, only 16% have observed the cost reductions promised by AI, 8.5% have observed improvements in operational efficiency, and 5.3% have observed productivity-related benefits in product and service development.
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But most companies recognize that they are still in the early stages of adopting generative AI. 50% admit to doing nothing, and only 21.3% say they have started testing productive AI, and 26% say they are focused on training and empowering their employees.. The key challenges executives point to are: integrating AI, managing cultural change within the organization, and attracting the talent needed to deploy AI.
Almost half (42.9%) of respondents say AI will not eliminate jobs, while 22% say the job reduction is less than 10%. 53.1 percent say they are not confident that AI will transform the nature of certain jobs and cause workforce restructuring. Almost 60% point out that regulation is very important to ensure the ethical and responsible development of this technology.