“It’s more complicated than I thought, it’s very heavy. “I’m going to have to go to the gym to deal with this,” Kate Hsiung growled after emptying the magazine of her assault rifle into a target twenty meters away. She’s an accountant and is part of the group supporting her on this sunny Sunday morning. Shooting classes at the Camp 66 academy are filled with students and housewives:A Unlikely militias to repel China’s invasion of Taiwan. “It is undeniable that tensions with China are rising, and it is better to err on the side of extremism than to err on the side of preparation. We cannot be so naive as to think that after Ukraine, it will not happen here either. Nobody wants war but if it comes I want to be able to protect my family“We cannot rely on the Government alone,” he thinks.
The latest victory of the Progressive Democratic Party (PDP), which has pro-independence origins, promises storms in the Formosa Strait in the next four years, as there has been no shortage of storms with the same formation in Government in the last eight years. Academies of all kinds that trained civilians for war grew unfettered, Courses sell out quickly and waiting lists are huge. The most popular is Kuma and serves to keep 90% of the population unarmed in any conflict. They teach how to detect enemy disinformation, how to distinguish Chinese uniforms from Taiwanese, apply tourniquets and other first aid or choose the best evacuation route. The center recently received $20 million from tech entrepreneur Robert Tsao to educate three million Taiwanese out of a population of 23 million in the coming years.
These are the driving force for those who come to this nondescript building in a Taipei suburb. Camp 66’s massive facilities a batch of weapons, uniforms, propaganda and other paraphernalia comes from all over the world. They don’t reveal who’s behind it, but this hot roundup shows pockets are deep. The lessons are taught by a former Taiwanese Navy officer, a weapons instructor for players who emigrated from Hong Kong, and a former U.S. Marine with experience in Iraq. Richard Limon is short and stocky, 41 years old, and has a boyish face. the body is full of wounds and a needle with flags on it United States of America and Taiwan on the collar. He refuses to communicate via messaging apps “for security reasons” and ends his sentences with a respectful “sir.”
“Who rules? “You or the gun?”he asks his students. He gets used to them by cleaning them, disassembling and assembling them. It also sharpens their aim and teaches them the basics of close-range combat, how to enter a room with guns or climb stairs, and how to handle hostage situations. After four daily sessions and 8,000 Taiwan dollars (235 euros), they are probably ready to fight. “They are more prepared than those who did not come. I had students whose hands shook when holding the gun, and they fixed it. We show them what to expect so they are mentally prepared. If your mind is ready, you can handle the rest.. That’s the goal. “It is more important to think like a soldier than to have the best weapon,” he explains.
Gun fans in general and fans of ‘airsoft’ games (low-powered compressed air guns that shoot tiny plastic balls) and those who fear a Chinese invasion come together here. Strict Taiwanese laws explain this All pistols, rifles and submachine guns in the building are replicas However, Limon promises that its mechanics are very similar to the real thing.
Accusations against the government
Students They accuse the government of neglecting national defense. Compulsory military service has been reduced from two years to four months, and its imminent extension to twelve months is also considered inadequate by many. Someone in their twenties remembers it as summer camp. “Commanders told us we could repel the Chinese attack, but I don’t believe it. “We just played with a few old rifles,” he recalls. There are many people with plans among those gathered, and there is also the chubby young man who immediately raises his hand when I ask the volunteers to explain to me what brought them here. guarantees it It is urgent to rid Taiwan of the Chinese, who will kill anyone who comes., says that Chinese influence is responsible for all evil and insists that he write his name in German. It’s comforting that Taiwan’s firearms ban prevents so many misfits in any society from venting their frustrations at the high school or the mall.
This is an exception. Remaining hatred towards Chinese in Taiwan explains social peace. There is no discrimination or disdain among Hongkongers towards mainland China, which was so widespread that the protests in 2019 turned into unchecked, daily attacks. Governments have a lot to do in this regard. While pro-democracy Hong Kong leaders fail to condemn even the most brutal acts, Taiwan promotes coexistence even when ruled by independence supporters. The PDP distinguishes its aggression against Beijing from the governed. “The highest elements are rapidly being cornered here,” confirms an unnamed source from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
WITH It is in the interest of all international actors to inflate the war bubble. PDP provides global coverage and sympathy and mobilizes its voters. The US underscores the narrative that the Chinese monster is against the free world and justifies its thick-skinned military budgets and the movement of its ships and aircraft into the Pacific. And China pleases the most nationalistic audience and reminds Taipei of the red lines it should not cross. This little theater explains decades of erroneous predictions about coming wars. In just a year and a half, the media machinery made this known during military exercises ordered by Beijing following the visit of former US House of Representatives speaker Nancy Pelosi to Taipei; He announced this when Russia attacked Ukraine because the Chinese would benefit from global surveillance; And he’s announcing it now because that way President Xi Jinping will divert attention. shaken economy.
War is unlikely. The first reason is statistical: China has not intervened for almost half a century, and it does not seem appropriate to break the series with the United States, arguably the world’s greatest war machine. The government’s priority and sole source of legitimacy is economic development and a conflict will stop that. China sees Taiwanese as citizens, not enemies, and views the island as just another room in the family home. In the most turbulent times, a reassuring certainty prevails: Neither Taipei nor Beijing wants “their” islands to be razed to the ground or “their” people to be slaughtered. China aspires to recapture a happy Taiwan and a leader in semiconductors rather than a devastated region like Ukraine. And the diminishing but significant pro-China sympathy on the island would evaporate with the first bombs. War will not solve China’s problem, but it will prevent its solution from lasting for generations, and stupidity is not among the faults of its Government.
No reputable analysts or Taiwanese are betting on war. A poll conducted during military exercises after Pelosi’s visit found that 78% of the public was not worried. Taiwanese and South Koreans share tranquility when world declares war. “Although young people joke about the war, they don’t talk about it regularly. This is a daily problem they have been experiencing for a long time. “They’re not openly discussing unification or independence,” says author and political commentator Brian Hioe. The majority of Taiwanese, especially those between the ages of 20 and 39, He asked the new president to give importance to the economy rather than the security of the Bosphorus In Commonwealth Magazine’s pre-election poll. Academies like Kuma or Camp 66 serve a growing but minority minority.
Meanwhile seventy years
Taiwan has now been in this transition period for seventy years and has been enjoying it. An independence that the world does not recognize, is actually a country rather than a law. This is not an ideal situation for Taipei, but any change could be fatal. Ada is aware that there is no better scenario than the status quo. There, the Kuomintang, which aspired to reunify under strict terms with the separatist PDP, eventually came together from polar opposites. The population has strongly emphasized its Taiwanese identity in recent years, but extreme options are anecdotal: almost none 6% want immediate independence or reunification 88% defend different formulas of the status quo.
It is more doubtful that the stalemate will satisfy China. The nation’s “revival” will only culminate with Taiwan, burying a century and a half of humiliations. Xi announced that the problem cannot be handed over to future generations and must be resolved before 2049, the centennial of the founding of the Republic, and before the losers of the civil war arrive on the island. It’s not the most appropriate context, but Beijing has no shortage of patience, imagination or foresight to understand that seduction is not the best way, but the only way. Use this certainty to take comfort in the announcement of upcoming wars in the next four years.