The war in Ukraine continues even without the media spotlight; The fighting is intense, soldiers are dying and thousands of artillery shells are fired every day. But progress is limited. very long front line He has barely moved for over a year. The counter-offensive launched by the Ukrainian Army last June has no concrete results on the map. Russia occupies approximately one-fifth of Ukraine’s territory. For now, the war initiative seems to be slightly in favor of the invader.
Ukrainian Army experience a moment of painThis situation is further intensified by the lack of certainty about the rate at which money and weapons will continue to come from the United States, and by the great national debate over how many men to draft to keep the options for victory open. And meanwhile, the possible dismissal of the soldier who commands the army, Valerii Zaluzhnyi, has been leaked to the Western press many times.
The hottest spot is the northern city of Advika. Difficult battles in which Russia advanced at the cost of losing hundreds of vehicles and soldiers. It is a strategic city because it is the gateway to Donetsk in the eastern region of Donbas, which Russia wants to control. “The Russian Army has made little progress there. C.“What is measured in meters is very anecdotal,” he explains to this newspaper. Guillermo Pulido, military strategy analyst and writer for Ejercitos Magazine. “Level of wear and tear [debilitamiento por desgaste del enemigo], combat and material losses are very high. The war is still in an intense phase, but little has changed on the ground. “There is talk of the possibility that the Russians will soon attempt a major attack in the north.”
Kharkiv Target
There was great expectation last summer when Ukraine announced it would counter-attack to take back territory occupied by Russia. Something similar to the attack in September 2022succeeded in expelling the invader from large occupied territories and Keep Russian artillery away from the big city of Kharkiv, The second in a country that has suffered a real ordeal of bombings. Strong progress was also made in the south of the country, between Zaporizhzhia and Mykolaiv.
counter attack 2023 did not achieve the same results. Russia has had time to dig in. Seven months later, little appears to have changed on the front line. Ukraine has recovered only 150 square kilometers this year. Russia occupied approximately 100,000 square kilometers.
Vladimir Putin’s Army maintains an artillery superiority estimated by sources to be between three to one and five to one. The European Union has delivered only a third of the promised million rounds of 155 mm ammunition. The United States continues to ship, but the speed Budget gridlock in Washington.
Meanwhile, Russia has found a new and unexpected supplier: North Korea. Its ammunition is quite imperfect but plentiful, and it also sends out short-range missiles that can do a lot of damage.
Moscow has punished several Ukrainian cities with an intense bombing campaign using drones or missiles. Its purpose is to ensure that anti-aircraft defense rockets are wasted and their “blood dried”. “This allows Russia to operate with greater freedom of air operations than in the previous year,” says Pulido.
Looks like Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s forces are at sea Significant progress has been made. They punished Russian ships with kamikaze drones and upgraded missiles and succeeded in reducing their operational capacity in the Black Sea.
Year of missed opportunities
“Overall, 2023 has been a year of missed opportunities for Ukraine,” he says. Michael Kofman Battle of the Rocks towards the middle. Moscow appears to have taken the initiative, according to a defense analyst at the American Carnegie Endowment who specializes in Russian and Ukrainian militaries.
Kofman focuses on current troop numbers, one of the keys to this year’s war. Russia maintains a constant flow of men into the “meat grinder” of the front and has managed to replenish the forces it lost last year.
Ukraine is still trying to determine its recruitment strategy, and there is intense debate going on across the country. The latest offer of the Kyiv Government, Between 450,000 and 500,000 soldiers. It has so far sought to avoid mass conscription of the youngest. “There are twice as many men in their forties as there are in their twenties, and they don’t want to lose people who will be their future,” Kofman says. They are now re-evaluating this. But they need to know how much weapons the West will give them this year to know whether to mobilize more people.
How to break the recession?
There is a race to see who can rebuild their forces first, and this could be one of the keys to the 2024 conflict. Whoever wins could enter 2025 with a significant advantage that will be difficult for the other side to recover. That’s why Russia persistently attacks the Ukrainian defense industry. He wants to break this.
Meanwhile, Kiev’s situation depends on how it manages its arsenal and, above all, who will win in the United States. If Joe Biden renews his victory, he is expected to continue the war effort with his ally. If Donald Trump, who was previously close to Putin and more isolationist, wins, he could turn off the tap and turn the victory to the occupying side. Russia depends only on itself and its industrial and mobilization capacity. The good news is that the EU has managed to unlock $50 billion in aid that Hungary’s Víktor Orbán had paralyzed.
This is a war of attrition where defensive aspects predominate. Each side tries to resist or make tactical advances while trying to find the moment for the other side to stay. no flow of supplies or not enough troops. And then launch a massive breakthrough attack to win the war. The other scenario is a frozen war in which Russia remains trapped under the trench lines it carefully constructed on land stolen from Ukraine.