Organizations such as NASA, Copernicus or the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) have confirmed this. 2023 was the hottest year Since records are available So was he expected to break records? Is this an isolated fact or a trend? What will happen in 2024? What are the consequences for the planet and health?
The Climate Change Service of the European Copernicus satellite system (C3S) revealed that the average surface air temperature in 2023 is 14.98°C, exceeding the previous record set in 2016 by 0.17 degrees, and last year’s record could be higher this year. the hottest in the last 100,000.
Global temperatures were approximately 1.2 degrees above the average of the 1951-1980 period, which the US space agency (NASA) used as a reference, and according to calculations, these temperatures were on average 0.15 degrees higher than in 2016.
According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the planet’s average annual temperature has exceeded pre-industrial levels by 1.45°C, reaching the limit set by science to guarantee the planet’s climate security.
UN climate experts and the Paris Agreement think: It is vital to limit global warming to 1.5°C In this century (average of several decades) pre-industrial levels (1850-1900) are respected to avoid the irreparable consequences of climate change (e.g. the disappearance of islands and coasts under the sea).
2023 is a unique year
The fact that 2023 is the hottest year is in line with the warming trend observed in recent years. What makes it unique, according to C3S senior scientist Francesca Guglielmo, is that the global annual average exceeds the average of the reference period (1991-2020) by 0.6 degrees and the 2016 record by 0.17 degrees.
With long-term global warming (associated with increases in greenhouse gases), The re-emergence of El Niño in 2023 also affected (Pacific warming).
However, the record temperatures of 2023 will El Niño was on the rise The scientist warned that the effects on global temperature should not decrease in the period when it is known to be strongest, and emphasized that record temperatures were also observed in the North Atlantic and other ocean basins.
What do you think, Evolution in 2024 will depend on the next dip of El NiñoTemperature planned for the first quarter of the year and the rate and intensity of development of the following phases (neutral and La Niña -cooling-), as well as temperature in basins outside the Pacific.
Warm-up steps on the gas pedal
According to José Miguel Viñas, Meteored meteorologist and WMO advisor, although 2023 was the warmest year in pools, what was not expected was that it “could take the podium with the difference it made”.
With the current El Niño event still ongoing and ocean surface water temperatures at record levels, “everything points to 2024 will be a very hot year again“With a temperature that will not be much different from 2023,” he said, and this was followed by another very hot 2022.
Viñas said, “We see that extreme weather events occur more frequently as a result of bringing together such hot years,” and added that changes have begun to appear in the weather patterns that determine the type of weather conditions. It’s the weather that affects us.
For example, in our geographical region these increasingly frequent air masses of subtropical origin and interrupted blocking situations due to the passage of high-impact storms or damages.
Increasingly worse extreme events
In this regard, the C3S scientist emphasized that a warmer climate affects the entire exchange of energy and water around the Earth and can therefore lead to changes in weather patterns.
According to scientists from the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), With every half degree of global warming, the intensity and frequency of extreme heat clearly increases.These include heat waves, heavy rains and agricultural and ecological droughts, Guglielmo noted.
The problem is not one-year data, but the general warming trend, which indicates “profound changes within the overall atmospheric dynamics.” According to Javier Andaluz, head of Ecologistas en Acción Climate Change, the increase in global temperature refers to “an atmosphere with more energy, or what we call meteorology.”
This requires, for example: prolonged drought but also more intense and widespread downpours Throughout the region, as we can see in Spain in 2023. “The DANAS, which we previously knew as cold blobs, were confined to the east coast, but now we see how much larger of a phenomenon they are at the surface.”
Another serious effect of increasing temperature is ocean warmingThis is a very worrying situation because it not only affects the life of fauna and flora, but also their role as “climate engines”, causing more severe hurricanes, for example.
Increasingly larger wildfires, more widespread and intense heat waves, increasing atmospheric pollution events, etc. are other events that are increasing due to warming, Andaluz added. It is “clear” that the world is getting closer to the 1.5 degree limit.
“We will continue to see climate conditions deteriorate in the coming years due to the emissions we currently produce. “If this situation continues to be repeated in Spain, desertification processes will increase in our region, making us even more vulnerable to the consequences of climate change.”
worse health
Global warming also affects human health directly and indirectly through various symptoms and effects, which María Isabel Moya, vice president of the General Council of Governmental Medical Schools (CGCOM), groups:
– Infectious diseases: An increase in temperature means that disease transmission vectors, such as mosquitoes or ticks, that normally live in warm places can spread to other regions where infectious diseases such as dengue fever, malaria, Nile virus or Lyme disease are not present.
– digestive diseases: Heavy rains and floods facilitate the increase in water of microorganisms such as vibrio, which causes diarrhea, among others.
– respiratory diseases: Warming causes more atmospheric pollution and changes in pollination; this is associated with an increase in the incidence of asthma and rhinitis. Additionally, the increased contrast in day and night temperatures is closely associated with a higher percentage of other respiratory diseases such as pneumonia.
– Cardiovascular diseases and cancer: Polluting microparticles also reach the circulatory system, causing cardiovascular diseases and triggering neoplasms, especially lung cancer.
– heatstroke: Human beings are accustomed to heat, and increasing temperature affects the body’s thermoregulation system, causing the heart to work harder and faster. Consequences: heatstroke, lipothymia, fainting, arrhythmias, heart attacks, and even excessive vasodilation leading to dehydration, which can lead to kidney damage.
– mental health diseases: This vasodilatation and change in thermoregulation is associated with fatigue, lack of concentration and motivation, or sleep disorders. Being indirectly exposed to disasters such as floods and fires can cause stress, anxiety, etc. causes situations.
– Not enought feeding: Rising temperatures, droughts, and other extreme events linked to climate change have been proven to lead to a decline in the quality and quantity of food and are therefore directly related to malnutrition.
– Higher infertility ratesboth feminine and masculine.
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