In case there is no session to close the year, mountain goat 35 You may be pleased: It completed the year at 10,087 points with a valuation of 21.20%. This is the best annual result since 2009, when the stock index gained 29.84%. Banks led by Rovi, Inditex and BBVA were the architects of Ibex’s rise in a year marked by general and municipal elections; These resulted in the formation of Government, the rise of interest rates and the opening of banks. A new conflict in the Gaza Strip. Thus, the Spanish selector took second place on the European podium, behind the Italian FTSE MIB, which increased by 25.90%.
Ibex 35 succeeded break multiple recordsespecially two months before the end of the year. at the end of november Overcame the psychological barrier of 10,000 people Three years after the disaster that occurred with the start of quarantine in the middle of the covid pandemic. A few weeks ago, Inditex exceeded the maximum level reached on the stock exchange in June 2017 and has already become the second largest company in the index with a capital size of 124 billion 50 million Euros. After learning that its headquarters were being transferred to the Netherlands, a decision welcomed by investors, Ferrovial reached new historic highs after announcing the sale of its 2.7 billion euro stake in London Heathrow airport around the same time.
But there was room for falls, too. The collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank and Credit Suisse led to weeks of daily declines in European banks; including six banks belonging to this index, sometimes reaching 10%. In three weeks, Spanish banks lost about 87 billion euros, 14.7% of their total market value at market close on March 9, when the top two US banking institutions went bankrupt.
Despite the scares in the first half the Ibex 35 managed to bounce back and overtake most of its European counterparts. German DAX40 While it closed the year with an annual valuation of 18.73%, its French neighbor CAC 40grew by 14.54 percent Euro Stoxx 50 17.27%. Due to the political turmoil last year, the British FTSE100 It closes 2023 with a profitability of 2.91%. This marks the first year that the UK legislature has had Rishi Sunak in charge, following the sudden departure of Liz Truss in October 2022 after just 45 days in office. In the European rankings, Italy leads the way with a 25.90% revaluation of its main index FTSE MIB. The Alpine country held its breath for just two days in August, when the Italian banking sector lost $9 billion as a result of the final relaxation of a new 40% tax on banking extraordinary profits.
If we compare Ibex 35 with US stock markets, only outperforming the Dow Jones, which gained 13.48%. At the end of this article. While Nasdaq surprised with 54.60% thanks to the rise of artificial intelligence, led by Nvidia (240.30%) and Meta (199.93%), the S&P 500 gained 24.40% last year.
Inditex and banks are the biggest drivers
The good performance of Ibex 35 is explained by: increase in banking securities, which account for a quarter of selective securities. BBVA, on the other hand, increased by 55.83%, becoming the fourth company with the most value after Rovi, Inditex and ACS, and carried the rest of the sector up. “They rose at the beginning of the year due to the rise in interest rates, but last month they suffered due to expectations of cuts by central banks,” explains XTB analyst Javier Cabrera.
Both the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank have made decisions in recent months keep rates within 5.25% to 5.5% for the first case and 4.5% for the second case. In their final press conferences following monetary policy meetings, both central bank governors opened the door to lowering interest rates in 2024; This increased investors’ optimism and therefore caused interest rates on bank bonds to fall.
These predictions are accompanied by last-minute precision: State Will continue the extraordinary tax on banks This taxes 4.8% of typical income for 2022 and 2023. “This is a controversial measure that reduces the attractiveness of the sector and the remuneration of shareholders,” emphasizes Bankinter analyst Rafael Alonso, because it “reduces the ability to generate capital in a country.” uncertain macro moment.
The company headed by Marta Ortega It also influenced the good performance of Ibex 35. 64.53% revaluation. Despite experiencing a 6.7 percent slowdown in sales between August and October and closing 84 stores in Israel due to conflicts, Inditex broke a new record by earning 4 billion 102 million in revenue in the first nine months of the year. “Good results come from investing, plans that have come to fruition in recent years, and new management leadership conveying a growth message to investors,” Cabrera notes.
A better 2024?
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After a good year, analysts are cautious in predicting what 2024 will be like. Ibex 35 has now reached 10,000 points. You should consider reaching the 10,250 point resistance zone. “The weakness and depletion of sectors like banking will be key when it comes to one move over another,” says Javier Molina, senior market analyst at eToro.
Of course, there is room for optimism. Although the increases seen in the last 12 months will not be repeated, Cabrera summarizes, “We are expecting a much calmer year.” According to Bankinter analysts, “a reduction in inflationary pressures, the beginning of a cycle of interest rate cuts, a gradual improvement in business results and a more positive geopolitical context” They present a positive scenario for bond and stock markets in 2024“And they also add that this does not mean that phases of recession or a realignment of expectations will not occur if inflation rises or a greater-than-expected economic weakening occurs.