bag The year 2023 has become today’s big financial surprise and somewhat underrated hero, especially those who are stars right now. crashing. Few analysts were able to predict the behavior of Ibex’s shares in 2022, which will accumulate at the end of the year a profitability of at least 22%, barring end-of-season surprises. treasure lettersIt attracts great attention and demand due to its low prices. bank deposits.
There are multiple reasons for this rise and general skepticism; for example, variables that affect the structure of companies’ share prices. ukraine war I turned off all alarms and interest rate increase in a high context inflation It was a difficult context for forecasting models to digest due to the challenges of international trade. As a result, the common opinion of analysts, the annual growth expectation of 10%, was exceeded.
This December, the stock market was the financial star of the year worldwide, with over 20% gains across all indices and some specific values. investors’ savings doubled. For this reason, Inditex It was revalued by around 60% and pharmaceutical company Rovi 65%. The general behavior of the ibex, which is becoming an increasingly less recommended reference, has been influenced in particular by: banksIt increased between 35% and 46%.
after summer
But, The biggest revaluations took place after the summer and the media devoted less coverage to the rise than in previous years, as a result of political overload in the wake of elections and war conflicts (Ukraine and Gaza).
There isn’t much data on the popular impact of investing in the stock market. End Family Financial SurveyThe following statements were made in the document published by the Bank of Spain and referring to 2020: 12.3% of Spanish households own publicly traded shares When applied to the total number of houses in Spain it represents a figure of 2.3 million houses and 5.8 million people exposed to equity risk if the average number of people per household is applied to the calculation. Both the number of households and the percentage of total households and individuals with family exposure to stocks have increased steadily since 2002.
It was noted that last year, in an environment where the increase in interest rates accelerated, emphasis was placed on information. in the growth of investments Public debt, with attractive returns and little risk. The stock market, on the other hand, remained an unreliable investment alternative for the uninitiated general public, charging too many commissions and increasing the complexity of income tax filing.
Investor profile
‘Recent publication of the study on the profile of stock market investors’Wealth, asset and investment management in Catalonia‘ made by the investment and trading platform eToro. The research confirms that the Catalan stock market investor is largely someone with previous experience in market operations. For this reason, The average Catalan investor is between 35 and 54 years oldAlthough more than 60% of young people aged 24 to 35 have invested at some time, the proportion of male investors (58%) is higher compared to female investors (47%). 73 percent of Catalans who have invested in the past remain in the markets. Supplementing their income and increasing their purchasing power stand out among the reasons that motivate the average Catalan to invest.
The Catalans’ favorite assets include: cash and bank deposits (more than 90% declare they are at risk), followed by mutual funds and insurance, variable income (indices and stocks), and real estate. 14% of Catalans allocate more than 50% of their investments to digital assets or cryptocurrencies.
Secondly, it became the center of attention for informational purposes in 2023 due to the decline in prices following the bankruptcy of some giants in the sector and crisis of confidence created. Less attention has been paid to the rapid recovery of stock prices. Currently, Bitcoin has gained 150% in value in a year. But until the situation for commercial intermediaries is fully regulated or commercial banks get involved in cryptocurrencies, the press remains cautious about listing achievements subject to risk and instability.
Analysts are not expected to make more accurate predictions for 2024 than in previous years. In any case, the consensus indicates that: geopolitical tensions and high interest rates There will be key risks.
According to consultancy firm Mercer, as economic growth slows in 2024, demand-driven inflation factors are expected to decrease, causing global inflation rates to move closer to central banks’ targets. Should this translate into widespread gains in stocks on the stock market? Not necessarily. There is no consensus. The Bankinter report states that banks that have increased so much this year will not be part of their investment portfolios until 2024. But the forecasts of economists and analysts are still a view that will not deserve respect or criticism until next year.