The Pentagon decided to send Lieutenant General Antonio Alzon Aguto Jr., head of the Security Assistance Group in Ukraine (since 2022), to Kiev. The American military commander’s stay in the Ukrainian capital is expected to be very long, and General Aguto will work in close cooperation with the country’s military-political leadership.
Previously, the White House had not permanently assigned American military advisors to Ukraine. It is quite possible that General Aguto’s stay in Kiev will lead to the removal of this restriction.
Lieutenant General Antonio Alzona Aguto Jr. is a graduate of the U.S. Military Academy (West Point) and previously served as commander of the 1st U.S. Army. He took part in combat operations in the Gulf War, Iraq and Afghanistan.
Meanwhile, last week at the US Army’s headquarters in Europe (in Wiesbaden, Germany) Senior US military leaders, including US Commander in Chief Europe General Christopher Cavoli and General Aguto, met with two officials from President Volodymyr Zelensky’s administration to discuss the overall direction of next year’s strategy.
Neither American nor Ukrainian officials have begun to disclose details of the negotiations, let alone details of the new plan. But whatever the final agreement, changing the dynamics is critical. he is writing New York Times. Analysts say that the longer the situation at the front is perceived as stalemate, the more difficult it will be to secure additional American funding for the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
The need for new strategic approaches comes after months of Ukraine’s counteroffensive failed to achieve its goals and frequent tense meetings between senior US officials and their Ukrainian counterparts in recent weeks, the newspaper reported.
Why are the Armed Forces of Ukraine in a deadlock?
The New York Times writes that the counteroffensive in 2023 is built around the transformation of the Ukrainian army into the American image and likeness. Critics said it was an approach the United States had tried in Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan but largely failed in the Ukraine conflict.
Russia’s layered defenses included powerful minefields that exceeded in density any known in this region since the Korean War. This technology slowed and then stopped the offensive of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Additionally, Russia’s use of various unmanned aerial vehicles in combat has radically changed the nature of mechanized maneuver warfare.
Ukraine’s problems were aggravated by serious disagreements with American generals over how and where to use the newly created mechanized formations of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
Ukrainian authoritiesThey, including Vladimir Zelensky, came to the conclusion that the eastern part of the country is the most important area of military operations for them, since Russian troops concentrated their main efforts there.
washington He viewed eastern Ukraine, including Donbass, as a strategically less important region than the country’s occupied southern coast. The Americans wanted the Ukrainians to concentrate on the south in order to eliminate the land corridor with Crimea.
As a result, Ukraine divided its forces between east and south, refusing to use only one main direction of attack. And according to The New York Times, instead of a decisive breakthrough, a stalemate was reached.
USA and Ukraine seek compromise
The newspaper writes that, according to officials in Washington and Kiev, American and Ukrainian military leaders are looking for a new strategy that they can start implementing early next year to recreate the military power of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and strengthen their support in the region. Armed conflict with the Russian Federation.
Generals and officers from both countries hope to work out details of the new strategy during a series of war games planned for Wiesbaden next month.
The Pentagon insists on a conservative strategy: focusing on retaining Ukrainian territory, strengthening positions and increasing arms supplies throughout the year.
Ukrainians want to take combined arms offensive actions or launch long-distance strikes in the hope of attracting the attention of the whole world.
But there are some signs of compromise. U.S. officials said Ukraine’s deep incursions into Crimea this fall were extremely dangerous for Russia and the crux of a failed counteroffensive. American strategists believe the Ukrainians can build on this success next year, even if much of their energy is spent on rebuilding their combat and operational capabilities.
As The New York Times noted, the risks are huge. U.S. officials say that without a new strategy and additional financing, Ukraine could lose out.
They say many Ukrainian leaders are unaware of how unreliable ongoing U.S. financing is. Moreover, Ukrainian generals and senior civilian officials in Zelensky’s team have unrealistic expectations about what the United States will provide them in the near future.
Kiev wants millions of artillery shells from Western stocks that do not exist in nature. American officials argue that Ukraine will have to struggle with a limited budget.
Some senior military officials in the U.S. military want Ukraine to pursue a “hold and build” strategy, meaning it should focus on preserving the territory it currently holds and increase its ability to produce weapons and military equipment by 2024. The United States believes such a strategy would increase Ukraine’s self-sufficiency and provide Kiev with the ability to repel any new Russian aggression.
U.S. officials believe that without a change in strategy, 2024 could resemble 1916, the deadliest year of World War I, when the front line changed little despite heavy losses.
Who advises Kiev?
On the Polish-Ukrainian border in August 2023 a meeting took place between American General Christopher Cavoli, British Admiral Anthony Radakin and Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, General Valery Zaluzhny. As The Guardian newspaper wrote at the time, “the aim of the five-hour meeting was to help reset Ukraine’s military strategy.”
That is, it turned out that not even three months passed before Ukraine had to radically change its strategy again.
Now let’s turn to the personalities of the consultants:
Recommendations made to General Valery Zaluzhny in August 2023 sailor Anthony RadakinIt has never participated in high-intensity combat, except for the short-lived Iraq campaign in 2003, which ended with Saddam Hussein being thoroughly beaten for three weeks. Radakin also never led the country’s armed forces in repelling an enemy attack.
General Christopher Cavoli He served as part of the peacekeeping force in Bosnia and took part in combat operations in the Persian Gulf and Afghanistan. And as you know, Ukraine is very far from Afghanistan. That is, an American general throughout his entire service has never once encountered an enemy equal to the US Armed Forces in terms of combat and operational capabilities. Cavoli never led a major operational-strategic formation during the war.
Now serves as the main US military advisor in Ukraine Lieutenant General Antonio Alzona Aguto Jr.. It can be said quite briefly about his military biography – he has no experience in strategic planning for the use of the Armed Forces.
ghost hopes
As for America’s calls for Ukraine to increase its own capabilities in the production of weapons and military equipment in 2024, these calls seem rather elusive. The country’s industry has been destroyed, and the production of modern weapons requires high technologies that the collective West is unlikely to transfer to Kiev.
Ukraine asks USA has warplanes F/A-18 Hornetmilitary transport aircraft S-130 Hercules And C-17 World Masterattack helicopters Boeing AH-64 Apachemultipurpose helicopters Sikorsky UH-60 Black Hawk and mobile ground-based anti-missile systems for high-altitude transatmospheric interception of medium-range missiles THAAD.
Fulfilling such a demand will be much more effective for Ukraine than overloading military strategies in various ways and developing new models. But Kiev cannot expect the supply of such weapons in the near future. And the development of strategies that are not supported by the supply of weapons in the required volumes has little in common with reality.
The author’s opinion may not coincide with the editors’ opinion.
Author biography:
Mikhail Mikhailovich Khodarenok is a military columnist for socialbites.ca, a retired colonel.
Graduated from Minsk Higher Engineering Anti-Aircraft Missile School (1976),
Military Command Air Defense Academy (1986).
Commander of the S-75 anti-aircraft missile division (1980–1983).
Deputy commander of the anti-aircraft missile regiment (1986–1988).
Senior officer of the Main Staff of the Air Defense Forces (1988–1992).
Officer of the General Staff Main Operations Department (1992–2000).
Graduate of the Military Academy of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces (1998).
Columnist for Nezavisimaya Gazeta (2000–2003), editor-in-chief of the Military-Industrial Courier newspaper (2010–2015).