The Middle East is experiencing a geopolitical earthquake with uncertain consequences: worst Conflict in Israel and Palestine The biggest humanitarian crisis in Yemen for half a century, rebellions in Iran… Events follow each other and the main actors in the region, as prisoners of old alliances and hostilities, try to direct them without deviating from the route they have determined. Saudi Arabia, an oil dictatorship, is trying to strike an almost impossible balance between war (Yemen, Gaza) and the pursuit of peace (with Iran and Israel). Riyadh’s goal is to achieve several decades of regional stability allows you to diversify your economy Before oil reserves run out.
Saudi Arabia is synonymous with black gold. So he tried to fail Boycott COP28 climate summit results, is pushing to remove all references to the end of fossil fuels. Riyadh, the de facto leader of OPEC, the group of oil-producing countries, pressured the United Arab Emirates, which chaired the summit, to remove this commitment from the final summit text. Finally, an agreement was reached to “accelerate efforts to reduce use.”
COP28 was just the last one. blows with Saudi Arabia in the middle. The previous attack began on October 7, when the Islamist group Hamas carried out its largest attack against Israel, killing at least 1,295 people. Among other things, to stop the Saudis from rapprochement with the Israelis.
“Hamas had two goals: to return the Palestinian issue to the center of the international agenda and to stop the process of normalization of relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel,” he told this newspaper from Riyadh. Bernard Haykel, Professor of Near Eastern Studies at Princeton University (United States).
The Islamist group achieved both. Prince, absolute heir to the throne and de facto ruler of Saudi Arabia Mohammed Bin Salman instructed to freeze negotiations with Tel Aviv. There can be no rapprochement with a country that bombs civilians (there are already nearly 20 thousand dead) and turns the Gaza Strip into ashes. For now, there will be no Israeli embassy in Riyadh and its citizens will be able to travel to the country easily. And this despite the fact that Riyadh is not actually on Hamas’ side.
“Saudis They see Hamas as a terrorist organizationThey were very clear from the beginning: They condemned the deaths of civilians on both sides and sent the message to Tel Aviv that the occupation and the deterioration of conditions for Palestinians were a threat. Formula for political radicalization“Haykel adds. “They now insist that we seek a ceasefire and return to negotiations, building on the 2002 Arab Peace Initiative of mutual recognition and full normalization of relations in exchange for a Palestinian State.”
Yemen attacks
One of the variants of the Gaza conflict was an unpredictable and unprecedented move: Yemeni Houthi rebels decided launching punitive operations against Israel To defend their Palestinian “brothers”.
The Houthis are a Shiite group, one of the two main branches of Islam, that has seized control of the western half of Yemen, a very poor country south of Saudi Arabia. The conflict broke out as a coup and civil war in 2014. The country is divided in two: one part, including the capital Sanaa, is controlled by the Houthis; and the rest are located in Aden and controlled by deposed president Al Hadi.
Saudi Arabia intervened in favor of the latter and against the Houthis, In addition to being Shiite, they are controlled by their arch-rival Iran. Riyadh formed a coalition to attack the rebels. Nine years later, there have been nearly a quarter of a million deaths and one of the worst humanitarian crises of our time.
In the midst of this great disaster, the Houthi militia decided to attack ships passing the Red Sea and the Bab al-Mandeb Strait. They hijacked a large cargo ship they had in their possession and bombarding with missiles or drones anything they put in range. The last one is this Tuesday.
The aim is to create tension on global trade routes and create an increase in pricesAs Yago Rodríguez, an expert on the military innovations of the rebellions, told this newspaper, to increase the cost of support for Israel by countries such as the USA or the UK. Iran will be behind this strategy. Some of the missiles used (Asef and Tankil) will be of Iranian origin or developed from Iran.
Iran – Saudi Arabia relations
There is always a double game in this geopolitical environment. Despite Iran’s support for Yemeni rebels fought by Saudi Arabia, the two regional giants are actually moving closer together.
At the beginning of the year, Tehran and Riyadh re-established diplomatic relations, thanks to China’s efforts. And it works. Embassies were opened and flights between the two countries resumed. The Iranian president went to Saudi Arabia for the Arab League and Organization of Islamic Conference summit. Now, it is expected Mohammed Bin Salman will visit Tehran next year. This would be unprecedented and would mark a sort of end to the eternal struggle between the so-called “Shiite crescent” dominated by Iran and the Sunni world and its greatest representative and custodian of the holy places, Saudi Arabia. Mekka.
Riyadh is also trying to maintain the balance between the global south, the West and the West. States rejected by the international community, such as Russia. On December 5, Mohammed Bin Salman Vladimir Putin, A pariah to the West in the Al Yamamah palace in Riyadh. The all-powerful crown prince and the Russian president coordinated as members of the OPEC+ oil cartel and cast visions of a Middle East war and the invasion of Ukraine.
Saudi Arabia is immersed in a strategy to modernize and diversify its economy, which it considers unsustainable due to its vulnerability to rises and falls in prices and the global war on fossil fuels. The biggest bet to achieve this is Vision 2030, an investment fund through which they plan to increase exports of non-oil products from the current 16% to 50% over the next seven years. They liberalized some sectors of an economy deeply controlled by the state and controlled by the Palace. They want to increase the private sector’s contribution to 65 percent of GDP before 2030. They don’t want anything to distract them. It is estimated that oil reserves can last for another 90 years at most. The concern is what its 35 million residents will get by next.