Just a few weeks before the end of 2023, Real estate is preparing to close a year of increases. interest rates and increase in financing costs brake sales and mortgages, but not prices due to lack of available supply.
Considering the monetary policy and macroeconomic situation, the housing sector will face an uncertain year 2024 and we will have to see the impact of the ongoing developments this year. earrings Housing Lawsuch as the rental price index for stressed areas.
What are the experts’ predictions for the end of 2023?
Bankinter expects sales to decrease by 14% He emphasizes that prices have increased by 1 percent, but have held up “surprisingly well” despite everything, thanks to the resilience of the labor market, lack of supply in the main cities and the increase in rental prices.
Spanish Association for Value Analysis (AEV) points out that housing prices It will close with an increase of over 6 percent Growth in new and used will be moderate next year, around 5%.
Despite the decline in operations after a very active 2022, Fotocasa expects the year to end with sales of around 550,000 units, which will be one of the best years since 2008, and expects a 5 percent price increase. It also calculates that 380,000 mortgages could be reached, one of the best years since 2010, despite the sharp decline.
The idealist talks about less 600,000 houses were soldAlthough this is one of the best exercises of the last 15 years in terms of numbers, it will mean a decrease of between 8 percent and 10 percent. A decrease of more than 25 percent is predicted in housing loans on an annual basis.
Pisos.com predicts that sales could fall 10% this year, the mortgage firm predicts 18%, prices could rise 6% and rental prices could rise 7% or more, while the Appraisal Society believes the price could close with a 100,000 increase. 3.5% to 1,850 Euro/m2.
What about by 2024?
Bankinter predicts: Prices will fall by 2 percent and transactions will drop 7%. The bank thinks that prices will increase by 1% again as Euribor moderates from 2025.
AEV states that second-hand house prices will increase by around 3 percent, and new house prices will increase by around 4-5 percent.
Fotocasa predicts sales of more than 450,000 with a return to normal market dynamics It seems that price increases continue, albeit more moderately. Idealista hopes that operations will resume and the lack of supply will put further pressure on prices.
While real estate agencies predict that purchases will be 10% less and prices will be 1-3% more expensive, Pisos.com points out that a decrease of up to 4% and 11% in purchases in mortgage loans is moderate. As for the prices, it is stated that they will be softened to 2 percent for sales and 1 percent for rent.
A new turning point?
The Appraisal Association suggests that the current real estate cycle is close to a valuation. New turning point considering macroeconomic volatility and changes in monetary policy, and believes that as long as rates remain high, operations will continue to contract and prices will recover.
Encina Morales de Vega, Professor of Economics at CEU San Pablo University, points out that the incentive for new construction is facing the biggest pause since the burst of the bubble in 2008 and that the current situation is unsustainable as prices are at their maximum and the cost reaches 200 thousand dollars. Save the finances as well.
From EAE Business School, Javier Rivas finds the evolution of prices surprisingThese rates, in some cases exceeding those recorded during the ‘boom’, insist that the industry will be greatly affected by successive rate increases, which could lead to a decline in prices.
Professor José Manuel Corrales from the European University of Madrid points out that the increase in house prices is moderate and believes that we will enter a cooling period in the economy due to high inflation.
In an environment like the current one, mortgage-free purchases are gaining weight, which currently represents more than 58% of the total, and according to notaries, the weight of foreigners in total operations is also breaking a record at 21%.