stock market session this 28 November 2023 With the support of banks, it rose by 0.68% to 10,003.40 points, which served to overcome the formidable resistance of 10,000 points and reach a new maximum level. spanish stock exchange in three years. The stock market is having a good moment, cementing a 21.56% year-on-year gain in Ibex. Advances were imposed on banks, which benefited Ibex; BBVA (+2.21%), Bankinter (+1.56%), Santander (+1.61%), Unicaja (+1.87%), Sabadell (+1.28%) and CaixaBank (+0%) ,84). Grifols received the red flag of the session with a 1.75% cut; It could be forgiven for being one of the picky stocks with the highest annual revaluation so far this year. Eight titles ended in red. The most rising title was BBVA.
The impact of the war on Gaza according to Freedom24
development of stock market Recent weeks have been particularly affected by the tension between the predictable development of interest rates, slowing economic growth and the fundamental characteristics of each company at this turning point in stock markets. One of the factors that worried investors in recent months was the way investments were interpreted. Consequences of the war in Gaza. In addition to the positive impact on arms companies, a report prepared by ‘brooker’ also attracted attention. Freedom24The EU-based stock operator, listed on the US Nasdaq, talks about the Israel-Hamas conflict and its impact on investment. Its analysis, based on comparison with previous war conflicts, concludes that “it is likely to have a very limited impact on the EU economy and stock market.”
Aside from the emotional effects (possible boycott of Israeli products) that are difficult to assess, the reality is that Israel is the EU’s 25th largest trading partner, representing only 0.8% of the EU’s total trade in goods last year. More attention has been paid to the role Iran has or could play in the war because if it were to become involved, an international stock market crash could be devastating. “The main risk for Europe lies at the level of disruption of oil supplies (Strait of Hormuz),” they say at Freedom24. But they also recognize that despite this theoretical vulnerability, the scenario of supply constraints would be “unlikely.”
After the analysis, Freedom experts get wet and give their recommendations for a diversified portfolio: Between 7% and 10% of the portfolio is invested in gold (currently at maximum levels and highly advocated as a premium safe-haven asset). )level); 25% to 35% of the portfolio consists of short bonds and 50% long bonds; short-term ones are more preferred; Another 25-35% in utilities, healthcare and consumer companies; Finally, it is between 10% and 20% in companies in the defense sector. Freedom24’s portfolio looks consistent, but perhaps the overweighting of bonds compared to public debt (which has had less upside potential lately) or the overweighting of utilities or healthcare is surprising because risk seems greater in this segment.
end of year rally
According to Jaime Raga of UBS AM Iberia, “It is difficult to be overly optimistic about the upside potential of stocks as economic growth loses momentum. In this sense, we are closely monitoring earnings revisions that move in the negative direction. The final quarter results of the fourth quarter of 2023 have been announced. Each In any case, this UBS expert believes that “conditions are present for the stock market to recover by the end of the year.” The situation has changed “radically” in a year due to the rise in interest rates and the predictable decline, which represents an opportunity to build portfolios with fixed income and positive expected returns.
Inflation forecast according to BBVA
Joaquín García Huerga, Director of Global Strategy at BBVA Asset Management (AM), warned this Tuesday that the labor market “remains tense” in both the US and the Eurozone, which could put at risk the forecast decline in inflation for 2024. According to the manager’s estimates, levels close to but above 2% should be approached in both regions in terms of both overall and basic rates.
Who benefits from falling interest rates?
In any case, it is noteworthy that the securities most sensitive to interest rates showed the best performance in the last period of 2023. Therefore, the top profit-making stocks include, for example, Grifols and Cellnex, which have large amounts of debt on their balance sheets; Therefore, the possibility of falling rates benefits them. Tourism firms also performed well, given that open war conflicts did not slow down the flow of tourists much. BBVA and Inditex have also been pioneers in recent months and have been influenced by their good results rather than other temporary factors.
Follow the trends
For those skeptical of market analysis, remember that companies’ strategies are derived from the evolution of the stock market and should not be underestimated, as they may have an impact on the more or less hiring or acquisition of competitors. Hence the evolution of the economy in general. Saving individuals in the stock market has sometimes been a devastation and sometimes a way to supplement the family economy. But I always follow trends.