Spanish Chamber of Commerce Increased economic growth this year up to 2.4%Three tenths more than forecast in September, but cuts forecast by one tenth up to 1.6% next year. With this update, the organization headed by José Luis Bonet follows the trend of most work services and organizations that increase growth this year and decrease it the next year.
Looking at the last quarter of this year, a 0.2% deceleration compared to 0.6% of the initial speedro. Anyway, this slow down “It doesn’t stop Spain from continuing to grow “Above the average of eurozone countries and the European Union as a whole”. Progress planned for 2023 will be “largely in the public sector, Programs financed with New Generation funds, Depending on the room.
Consumption and investment
On the other hand, both private consumption and investment“Due to high growth, it will offer much more modest growth rates compared to last year.” inflation and rise interest rates“. The decline in demand in Spain’s main markets – especially in the European Union, which concentrates 64% of exports – will be reflected in the behavior of the external sector, which will contribute only six-tenths of a percent to exports in 2023.” “The growth of the economy was 2.9 points in 2022.”
evolution foreign sectorGrowth, which has been one of the drivers of growth so far, is estimated to be even more modest in 2024. this contributes only one tenth of a percent It will depend almost entirely on the growth of the economy as a whole. domestic demanddraws attention to the analysis of this organization.
In any case, the expected slowdown in growth in the inflation rate, as well as the foreseeable stability in interest rates, is expected to favor both private consumption and business investment, to maintain at least “similar levels” to these levels. of this exercise”. In contrast, “necessary containment public deficit“It will mark the smallest increase in public spending next year due to a return to the application of European fiscal rules.”
The moderation trend in inflation continues; 3.7% increase in 2023 and 2.7% increase in 2024. These are still substantial levels, especially when viewed in terms of the fundamentals of inflation excluding unprocessed food and energy (6.3% and 3.3% in 2023). % in 2024).
As for the labor market, 2023 will end with an average unemployment rate of 12.4%, and this rate may be maintained in 2024. The economic slowdown will be reflected in the labor market, which will slow down growth. creating more than half a million full-time jobs.