Chinese scientists from Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology have discovered that radically reducing emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases into the atmosphere can not only stop global warming, but also lead to an increase in the number of weather disasters in some regions. By 2050. The study was published in the scientific journal magazine Nature Communications (NatComms).
Reducing carbon emissions from the burning of fossil fuels remains a key strategy to combat global warming, aiming to limit the rise in average global temperatures to 1.5°C to 2°C above pre-industrial levels by 2100. Today our planet is already 1.1°C warmer than at the beginning of the era of rapid industrial development.
Chinese experts have found that if humanity somehow completely eliminated greenhouse gas emissions this century, this would affect two carbon-related air pollutants: tropospheric ozone and atmospheric aerosols.
The team determined that the reduction in atmospheric aerosols would have a negative impact, increasing the frequency of extreme weather events more than greenhouse gas emissions.
While tropospheric ozone affects the temperature of the planet by increasing the thermal effect of solar radiation, atmospheric aerosols can have the opposite effect, cooling the Earth.
The scientists modeled the impact of each of the greenhouse gases, ozone and aerosols under conditions in which there were no new emissions. Calculations have shown that eliminating aerosols would lead to a warming of 2°C. Similarly, the model showed that precipitation would increase in the Northern Hemisphere and decrease in the Southern Hemisphere.
The duration of heat waves will increase to 40 days per year by 2050, and each such event will last about 20 days. And by 2100, the period of extreme heat will already be 50 days a year.
The authors of the paper emphasized that their findings highlight the need to find sustainable solutions not only for greenhouse gases but also for related pollutants.
Previous scientists determined Critical warming points of the world’s oceans.