The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), according to its ‘Economic Perspectives’ report released this Wednesday, revised its global macroeconomic forecasts downwards, taking into account the impact of the war in Ukraine on the world economy.
In the case of Spain, the body lowered its growth forecasts for gross domestic product (GDP), up to 4.1%. This represents a downward revision of 1.4 points from the 5.5% growth forecast published in December. The forecast for 2023 has been moved to 2.2% from the previous 3.8%.
Due to the high level of uncertainty, the OECD decided to undertake these downgrades in its growth forecasts. most inflation and the slowdown in foreign demand of the Spanish economy. On a positive note, the Paris-based organization highlighted household savings, the fiscal stimulus package to counter the effects of the war, the “continuous recovery” of employment and European funds as factors to boost economic growth.
Average 8.1% inflation
For 2022 as a whole, the OECD projects an average of 8.1% inflation for the year as a whole, A few points above the 3.2% forecast in Decemberhas released its full macroeconomic forecasts for the last time. In 2023, price growth will ease to 4.8%, above the 1.5% expected half a year ago.
“The war in Ukraine, Spanish economy “Due to higher energy prices, disruptions in production chains and further uncertainty as direct trade and financial risks to Russia and Ukraine are limited”, stressed the party chaired by Mathias Cormann.
The development of the labor market stands out positively
Regarding the rest of the macro picture, it somehow stands out again. positive evolution labor market. Since the pandemic began, unemployment rate data has been better than international organizations’ estimates. In December, the OECD predicted that unemployment in Spain would be 14.2% in 2022 and 13.6% in 2023. New estimates put the unemployment rate at 13.6% through 2022, but the organization projects a slight increase to 13.9% by 2023.
As for the budget deficit, it will be 5% in 2022, four-tenths less than predicted in December. until 2023, will fall to 4.2%, the same rate as half a year ago.
Due to less exposure to Russia, Spain’s estimates were lowered from the December estimates. lower than the exposure of other major euro economies. In this way, expectations for Germany are lowered by 2.2 percentage points to a GDP growth of 1.9% in 2022; France will grow by 2.4% (1.8 points less) and Italy by 2.5% (2.1 points less).