Even if the world puts the brakes on CO2 emissions, a significant and large part of this antarctica already doomed to an “inevitable” meltdownAccording to a new study that reveals how alarming and irreversible the situation caused by global warming is.
The study says it would take hundreds of years for the frozen continent to melt completely, causing sea levels to rise by about 1.8 metres, but there would be no need to go to that extreme to forever change where and how people live in the future. .
Researchers used computer simulations to calculate the future Melting of platforms acting as protective shields from ice in the Amundsen Sea In West Antarctica.
Research published days ago in the journal Nature Climate Change, discovered this Even if future warming is limited to a few tenths of a degree That goal, an international goal that many scientists say is unlikely to be achieved, “will have limited power to prevent ocean warming that would cause the West Antarctic ice sheet to collapse.”
“Our real question here was: How much control do we still have over the melting of the ice sheets? How much melting can be prevented even by reducing emissions? The study’s lead author, oceanographer Kaitlin Naughten of the British Antarctic Survey, told the AP:
“Unfortunately, it’s not good news. Our simulations show that We are facing a rapid increase in the rate of ocean warming and the resulting melting of ice shelves for the rest of the century.”
Melting in all possible scenarios
Although previous studies had predicted how serious the situation was, Naughten was the first to use computer simulations to study the key component of warm water melt that melts ice from below. Investigation analyzed four different scenarios It depends on the amount of carbon dioxide released into the atmosphere. Ocean warming was too high in every scenario The work concluded for the survival of this part of the ice sheet.
Naughten observed the melting of the most important ice shelves that act as shields for inland glaciers. When these ice sheets melt, there will be nothing to prevent the glaciers behind them from flowing into the sea. Thus, the level of the world’s oceans is rising.
Naughten looked specifically at what would happen if future warming were somehow limited to an increase of 1.5 degrees Celsius above mid-19th century levels (the international target) and found that extreme melting would occur even at that point, such a moderate warming assumption. In fact, the world has already warmed by about 1.2 degrees Celsius since the pre-industrial era and has temporarily exceeded the 1.5 limit for much of this summer.
Naughten’s study focused on the part of the West Antarctic ice sheet near the Amundsen Sea that is most at risk of melting from below. This includes the massive Thwaites Ice Shelf, which is melting so fast it has been called the “end of the world glacier”.. West Antarctica is only one-tenth the size of the southern continent but is more unstable than its larger eastern portion.
“The damage has already been done”
This part of Antarctica is “doomed to fail”“The damage has already been done,” summarized Eric Rignot, an ice scientist at the University of California, Irvine, who was not involved in the research.
Ted Scambos, an ice scientist at the University of Colorado who was not involved in the research, also confirmed: This ice sheet “will eventually disappear. “This is not a happy outcome, and I only say that reluctantly.”
Naughten doesn’t like to use the word “doomed” because he said that within 100 years the world could not only stop but reverse carbon levels in the air and global warming. But he admitted that What is happening on the ground now is a slow collapse that cannot be stopped, at least not in this century.
“I think it is inevitable that some of this area will be lost. “It’s inevitable that the problem will get worse,” Naughten told The Associated Press. “Since sea level rise will happen in the very long term, it is not inevitable that we will lose everything. “We just looked at what’s going to happen by 2100. So after 2100, we probably have some control.”
Naughten said that regardless of the words used, he and other scientists who studied the area in previous studies concluded that this part of Antarctica “cannot be saved, or most of it cannot be saved.”
Naughten’s study did not predict how much ice would disappear, how much sea level would rise, or how fast it would rise. But he guessed that If all the ice in the area at highest risk melted, sea level would rise by about 1.8 meters.
But he said this was a slow process that would play out over the next few centuries, until around 2300, 2400 and 2500.
Naughten said such sea level rise would be “absolutely devastating” if it occurred within 200 years, but if it spread over 2,000 years, humanity would be able to adapt.
Reference work: DOI: 10.1038/s41558-023-01818-x
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