A new and desperate alarm signal from the scientific community. The countdown has begun to save the planet and people from the worst effects of climate change: Only six years away from 1.5 degree global temperature increaseOriginally planned for 2100, “every tonne of CO2 we can prevent from entering the atmosphere is vital,” warns a study published by the journal on Monday. Nature Climate Change.
This is the most current and complete researchTo date, the global carbon budget, that is, the estimate of the amount of dioxide emissions that can be released into the atmosphere to keep warming below a certain limit, in this case the 1.5 degree temperature increase by the end of the century, with which the global Paris Agreement aims to combat the climate crisis.
Forecast calculations
The calculations are as follows: In January 2023, less than 250 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide (GtCO2) remain to be released into the atmosphere to prevent the planet from warming by an average of more than 1.5 degrees relative to normal levels. pre-industrial (year 1850).
Maintaining the current emission rate (40 GtCO2 released into the atmosphere in 2022) this year and in the following years, The carbon budget, which would not exceed 1.5 degrees, would be exhausted in six years, that is, around 2029.
The authors also calculate that the remaining carbon budget to keep global warming below 2 degrees is 1,200 GtCO2, and that this figure would be exceeded in 23 years (2046) if the current emission rate was maintained.
But with little budget left to avoid exceeding the Paris Agreement’s targets, scientists say Any changes that mean more or less emissions may change these dates.
worse than believed
But this research shows that the remaining carbon budget is smaller than previously estimated, falling by roughly half since 2020. Continuous increase in global emissions.
“Our results confirm what we already knew: We are not doing enough to keep warming at safe levels.and the window to keep us below 1.5 degrees is closing,” one of the main authors, researcher Robin Lamboll of Imperial College London, said at a press conference.
“Each degree of warming will make life more difficult for people and ecosystems. This study is another warning from the scientific community. Now It is the responsibility of governments to take action“Lamboll adds.
Lamboll emphasizes that the results of this study are “not a call to give up, but rather a warning that every tonne of CO2 released into the atmosphere matters.”
Scientists remember this Even if we exceed the 1.5-degree threshold for a while, global temperatures could fall if countries reach net-zero emissions by mid-century.As they promised in the Paris Agreement.
The results of this study are based on current forecasts as well as climate models and data updated in recent months.
………..
Contact address of the environmental department:[email protected]