food production It is currently one of the factors affecting the planet the most due to the way agriculture and animal husbandry are planned. But, doubling food production, saving water and increasing carbon storage capacity It may be possible through a radical spatial reorganization of land use on a global scale.
This is the conclusion of researchers from the Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT) and the Heidelberg Institute for Geoinformation Technology (HeiGIT) at the University of Heidelberg. Their findings were published in PNAS (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
For example, human use of the Earth’s surface for food production has changed significantly in recent centuries. The world population is increasing. More food is needed and can be transported around the world as quickly as possible. But, Historically developed food production systems do not match the biophysical potential of our ecosystems.
The study shows that Not producing food in places where it will be most efficient in terms of surface use, water consumption and CO2 emissions. Instead, deforestation continues, making way for croplands and pastures, and irrigating drylands. These activities have a major negative impact on water availability and carbon storage.
What if fields, pastures and natural vegetation were moved to where they would be most productive? What if planting areas were limited to areas that did not require intensive irrigation? To answer these questions, researchers from KIT and HeiGIT combined a dynamic vegetation model with an optimization algorithm to examine alternative global land use scenarios and their impacts.
The researchers modeled optimized land use for the climate conditions of an optimistic scenario for the near and distant future (2033 to 2042 and 2090 to 2099) and a more realistic climate change scenario at present.
Increase food by 83% and water by 8%
This is how they discovered: Spatial reorganization alone would increase food production by an average of 83%, water availability by 8%, and CO2 storage capacity by 3%.. These increases will be even greater if one of the three parameters is prioritized over the remaining two.
“Our study specifically addressed the biophysical potential as the basis for a land use that would take target conflicts much better into account,” says first author Anita Bayer from KIT’s Alpine Campus in Garmisch-Partenkirchen. “We discovered that In fact, there are regions where certain land uses may be advantageous or optimal.“, To add.
According to the research, Tropical and boreal forests should be protected or reforested due to their excellent CO2 storage capacity. It is not used as cultivation area or pasture.
Temperate latitudes will need to serve as agricultural land rather than pasture. This will compensate for the loss of area resulting from reforestation of tropical and boreal forests. wide and open Tropical and subtropical savannas and grasslands should be used as pasture and for food production. “This optimal land use plan turned out to be quite stable in our study,” says Bayer.
The study shows that regional implementation differs greatly from the theoretically achievable optimum. Major changes in land use will be required to better exploit biophysical potential. and at the same time increase food production, water availability and carbon storage capacity.
“While such large changes in land use may seem unrealistic, we must be aware that: Climate change will still cause major changes in cropland” says Professor Sven Lautenbach, researcher at HeiGIT and the Institute of Geography at Heidelberg University. “We should not allow these changes to occur, but try to manage them taking into account the biophysical potential.”
Reference work: https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2220371120
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