Valencian Community It will record 2.1% economic growth in 2023, That’s three-tenths below the state average and one-tenth above it at 1.9% in 2024, BBVA Research estimates. This organization sees the Balearic Islands, the Canary Islands and Madrid as the three autonomous communities that will lead economic growth in 2023; Annual GDP growth in these three regions is predicted to be above 3%, followed by Catalonia (2.7%). a bigger driver than tourism and consumption.
BBVA Research announced its 2023 and 2024 growth forecasts for autonomous communities this Tuesday. In this context, it generally maintains its forecasts for 2023 and shows GDP growth for Spain as a whole at 2.4%. Communities with below-average growth will be Extremadura (2.3%), Castilla-La Mancha (2%)Andalusia (2.1%) and Murcia (1.8%) are considered to be ignoring the consequences of drought, which will prevent the creation of more jobs in these regions, according to BBVA Research.
The increase in goods exports, the recovery of the industrial sector and especially the automotive sector support the dynamism in Aragon and Castilla y León, whose growth will be equal to that of the country (2.4%). But, La Rioja (2.3%), Cantabria (2.0%), the Basque Country and Navarra (1.9%) and the Valencian Community, Asturias and Galicia (2.1%) will continue to progress below average There has not been such a clear development in the sector yet.
2024 predictions
for next year Spain’s GDP revised downwards by 0.3 pointsGrowth is estimated to be 1.8% due to the general deterioration of foreign demand due to the increase in fuel prices and the restriction of growth in some sectors such as tourism (again at historical occupancy rates) or housing.
But BBVA Research experts say that overcoming the drought will allow the communities most heavily weighted in agriculture to return to similar-to-average growth. At the regional level, Andalusia (1.8%), Extremadura (1.8%), Murcia (1.8%) and Castilla-La Mancha (1.7%) will close the negative gap between them and Spain in 2023. HE Progress of industrial activity, supported by the recovery of European demand and the elimination of bottlenecks, GDP in most of the northern regions such as Navarra, Aragon and the Basque Country (2.2%), Galicia, Castile and León and Cantabria (2.1%), Asturias (1.9%) and La Rioja (1.8%) should be allowed to grow above average. .
The revision of the Spanish scenario does not affect consumption by non-residents, which makes it possible to leave the 2024 growth forecasts for the Canary Islands and the Balearic Islands, which will be affected by restrictions on housing production, not be additionally changed. Tourism growth will moderate next year, showing less dynamism, with growth of 1.4% and 1.5% respectively. In Catalonia, the Valencian Community and Madrid (1.9%), these factors will be offset by the recovery of the industrial sector.A positive growth gap with Spain will emerge in 2024.