The National Institute of Statistics (INE) this Monday published GDP review data corresponding to the period between 2020 and 2022, and the result is that the economy grew by 5.8% in real terms in 2022 (three-tenths above the predicted figure of 5.5%). January 2023), without taking into account the effect of inflation. In nominal terms, growth was 6.4%, nine tenths above the preliminary January data.
The National Institute of Statistics now calculates a 1.5% higher GDP volume for 2022 than the previous estimate
In addition, the GDP data for 2020 and 2021 were revised slightly upwards. With the new series published this Monday, it was revealed that the decrease in GDP in 2020 was 11.2% (compared to -11.3% in the previous series). Moreover, real growth in 2021 increased to 6.4% (compared to 5.5% previously), while real growth in 2022 reached 5.8% (three-tenths above what was expected in January).
Thus, updating the national accounts for the periods 2020, 2021 and 2022 leads to an estimate of annual GDP at current prices. 1,346,277 million euros in 2022, 1.5% higher than the level originally estimated by INE. The new data predicts a recovery to the pre-pandemic level of GDP in 2022, rather than in the first quarter of 2023 as preliminary data indicates. In fact, the volume of GDP at the end of 2022 was 8% above that in 2019 (1,245,513 million).
Lower debt burden
The larger volume of GDP allows the weight of public debt to be reduced by 1.6 percentage points, i.e. up to 111.6% of GDP, in 2022
Moreover, nominal GDP (in millions of euros) is now higher, leading to a reduced weight on public debt. In particular, as emphasized by the Ministry of Economy, an increase in nominal GDP by more than EUR 20,000 million allows the debt to GDP ratio to be reduced by an additional 1.6 percentage points (up to 111.6% of GDP) by the end of 2022 and Stability It will allow the financial targets determined in the program to be estimated, Reduce the reduction to below 110% by 2023.
For the Ministry of Economy, the new data from INE also reflects “the quality of growth of the Spanish economy, which increased the weight of salaries on GDP by more than one point, particularly benefiting families.”
More consumption, less investment, more exports
INE now makes predictions specifically for 2022 a contribution lower than national demand (2.9% compared to 3.1% previously) and Greater contribution from foreign demand (2.4% vs. 2.9%).
Reviews of the National Accounts series are carried out regularly in all EU countries, as the latest statistics are included in the calculations. In this estimate, which may still be changed in future updates, Family Budget Research (EPF) Preliminary forecast of 2022 and Economic Accounts Agriculture; It also includes updated foreign trade data from accounts. Public Administrations and non-profit organizations serving households (NPISH), as explained in the statement issued by INE this Monday.