Replace 50% of meat and dairy products with plant-based alternatives by 2050 Reduce greenhouse gas emissions related to agriculture and land use by 31% Degradation of forests and natural areas needs to be stopped, according to new research published in the journal Nature Communications.
According to the research, Reforestation of lands saved from livestock farming Additional climate and biodiversity benefits can be achieved when meat and dairy are replaced by plant-based alternatives; Climate benefits could more than double and future declines in ecosystem integrity could be halved between now and 2050.
The restored area could contribute up to 25% of estimated global land restoration needs under Target 2 of the Kunming Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework 2030.
“We’re going to need much more than ‘Meatless Monday’ “We are working to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions that cause climate change, and this study shows us the way forward,” said study co-author Eva Wollenberg, from the University of Vermont (UVM) in the United States.
” plant-based meats He explains that they are not just a new food product, but also a decisive opportunity to meet food security and climate goals while meeting health and biodiversity goals worldwide. “These transitions are challenging and require a range of technological innovations and policy interventions.”
The study, conducted by researchers from UVM, the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), the International Alliance for Biodiversity and CIAT, is the first to analyze global food security and the environmental impacts of meat and dairy consumption on a large-scale plant-based basis. Food that takes into account the complexity of food systems.
“Understanding the impact of dietary changes expands our options for reducing greenhouse gas emissions,” said Marta Kozicka, lead author of the study and an IIASA researcher. “Changing diets could also lead to major improvements in biodiversity.”
The authors found that a 50% replacement scenario would significantly reduce the increasing impacts of food systems on the natural environment by 2050.
What will happen on this planet
Compared to 2020, changes will consist of: Global agricultural area will decrease by 12% instead of increasingThe decline in forests and other natural areas will almost completely stop, nitrogen input into agricultural areas will be almost half of what was planned, and water consumption will decrease by 10% instead of increasing.
The decline in forests and other natural areas will almost completely stop.
Not accounting for carbon sequestration in protected areas, greenhouse emissions could decrease by 2.1 Gt CO2eq year-1 (31%) in 2050 (average of 1.6 Gt CO2eq year-1 in 2020-2050). Worldwide malnutrition will fall to 3.6% compared to 3.8% in the reference scenario (the number of undernourished people decreased by 31 million).
The authors developed dietary change scenarios based on plant-based recipes consisting of beef, pork, chicken, and milk. really? Recipes are designed to be nutritionally equivalent to animal protein products Authentic and realistic for food production capabilities and production materials available worldwide.
The research team sought input from Impossible Foods, a company developing plant-based substitutes for meat products, to ensure validity of the results and as a potential user. The company provided generic recipes for the plant-based meat substitutes used in the analysis. The scientific team had full control over the decision-making process for this peer-reviewed study, and the data is not exclusive to Impossible Foods.
All the environmental benefits of dietary changes can be achieved if agricultural land saved from animal husbandry and feed production is reclaimed. biodiversity focused reforestation.
In the 50% scenario, the benefits of reducing land use emissions could be doubled compared to a scenario without reforestation: a total reduction of 6.3 Gt CO2eq year-1. The 50% restoration scenario would more than halve the projected decline in ecosystem integrity.
“Although the nutritional changes analyzed are a powerful tool for achieving climate and biodiversity targets, they must be accompanied by special production policies to take full advantage of their potential.. Otherwise, these benefits will be partially lost due to the expansion of production and the associated losses in greenhouse gases and land use efficiency,” explains Petr Havlík, Director of the IIASA Biodiversity and Natural Resources Programme.
The authors recognize that livestock farming is a valuable source of income and food for small farmers in low- and middle-income countries.
Although the results support increased use of plant-based meat substitutes, The authors recognize that livestock farming is a valuable source of income and food for small farmers in low- and middle-income countries.It has important cultural functions, reduces risk and diversifies the income of small farmers.
Simultaneously, Climate change threatens the livelihoods of small animal farmers. Rapid policy and management action will therefore be vital to avoid environmental risks and support farmers and other actors in the livestock value chain to ensure a socially just and sustainable transition in the food system. Experts emphasize that this is especially important given the recent disruptions in ensuring food security globally.
According to the research, effects between regions; may differ due to population size and nutrition differences, agricultural productivity inequality, and participation in international trade in agricultural products.
The main impacts on agricultural input use are in China and on environmental consequences in Sub-Saharan Africa and South America. These regional differences can also be used to design better interventions.
“The food sector produces approximately one-third of global greenhouse gas emissions.And decarbonization is known to be quite difficult, explains Wollenberg, a researcher from UVM’s Gund Institute for the Environment, the Rubenstein School of Environment and Natural Resources, the International Alliance for Biodiversity, and CIAT.
“Given the magnitude of the benefits we have shown of replacing meat with plant-based alternatives in terms of global sustainability, climate action and human health, this research provides important food for thought for consumers, food producers and political leaders,” he concludes.
Reference work: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-40899-2
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