Climate change is a reality increasing effects on life quality people but also effects potentially very serious financial system and therefore in the flow credit towards homes and workplaces and savings fee your citizen. This is due to: first report Climate change risks prepared by Bank of SpainNational Securities Market Commission (CNMV) and General Directorate of InsuranceThe conclusions reached by EL PERIÓDICO of the Prensa Ibérica group were reached. The study warns of climate change: messy, mutual funds would suffer loss average value of assets 5.7% in just three yearsfor now pension funds would rise 8.2%.
So in this irregular scenario, drop striking cost effectiveness of these products, which channel a significant portion medium and long term savings families. But also banks will experience an increase late payment in loans given for corruption of the situation economic And payment capacity as well as its customers decline in value of their portfolio investment. All this leads to their downfall. solvency of 1.2 points percentages over three years until reduced at 11.6%. The lower the ability to pay, fewer new and more expensive loansAs reminded in the report to be published by the Macroprudential Authority Financial Stability Council (AMCESFI), Ministry of Economy and financial supervisory bodies.
The main conclusion of this pioneering study is: not taking action against climate change This is not an alternative: The transition to a more sustainable economy needs to be completed. So, three auditors conducted an analysis. view hypothetical amount There was decarbonization insufficient or to be implemented late. This will result in an increase of 240 euros in the price of CO2 emission rights and 282%, up to 325 euros. This increase in prices is expected to cause heavy losses to the sector in the three years examined. sectors further fuel dependent fossils, which causes GDP is fallingat the price living spaceand its value financial assetsso it is reduced family fortune and companies.
50 GDP points
The scenario was prepared accordingly. hypothesis hired by other European auditors and designed by global collaboration network NGFS auditors (Network for Greening the Financial System). So, it is thought like this: global temperature will increase by approx. three degrees degrees Celsius if climate measures are not adopted after 2020 Real GDP of Spain would slow down until it became negative (permanent recession) since ten years 2050.
Economic projections show this do nothing Opposing climate change is not an option because of its brutal cost: GDP will be 50 percentage points lower in 2070 what an orderly transition would bring. To put it in perspective, the decline in activity in 2020 quarantine because of covid, It was around 11%. In addition, this is the second important result of the report messy transition or its delay will be significantly more costly than ordered: GDP in 2070 12 percentage points lower in the first scenario compared to the second.
vulnerable households
The third message highlighted by the study of the three supervisory bodies is this: transition must be accompanied by decarbonization of energy and economy mechanisms that reduce their effects Economic actors most affected. It is especially worth noting that houses where energy has a greater weight in expenditure (normally, low income), as well as companies and most dependent sectors fossil fuels and more CO2 emitters.
The document also includes an analysis of the effects of the two practices. extreme weather events and concludes that it will have a significant economic impact. Drought and heat waves, reduces productivity Especially in the sectors most exposed to risk, such as agriculture and construction. This is also affects growth will increase economy late payment banks and therefore they will reduce it. profitability and solvencyIt harms the credit flow. insurersthey too would see themselves accident rateThis will reduce the solvency ratio.