The powder keg of the Caucasus: tensions between the republics and doubts about Moscow due to the Ukrainian mobilization

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This Russian republics of the Caucasus they drag contradictory stigma. As of today the situation is calm but occasional outbreaks may occur, both tensions between the dozens of ethnic groups that make up it like revolt against Moscow, something that the foreign ministries of different European countries reflect on their web pages. According to reports, this part of the country unstable and potentially dangerous and even tourist guides like those on Lonely Planet recommend against visiting it.

Despite The worst times of the Caucasus have already passed “terrible 90’s”, that hard time still resounds. Marta Ter, an analyst specializing in the Caucasus, explains that the feeling of independence “lazy in the regional republics”. Chechnya It is the one with the “strongest” separatist impulse. In fact, this area is already became independent De facto in the 90s, taking advantage of the chaos after the collapse of the USSR and came to control its territory, although no other country on the planet recognized it as an independent state. Checked by today Ramzan Kadyrov, a tough governor who got the approval of Vladimir Putin. This allows him to have a broad arm in governing his territory and even enjoy privileges such as the concession of Ingushetia territory in 2018, which sparked protests in Magás, the capital of Ingushetia.

Another factor that demoralized the local population in the Caucasus is the partial mobilization stemming from the Russo-Ukrainian conflict that led to demonstrations last September, which has become more intense both in southern Russia and in Siberia. even being severe, in some police officers attacked and intermediaries must aerial shots to disperse the crowd. During the Wagner group’s coup attempt at the end of June, some people took advantage of this confusion and painted some walls in Makhachkala, the capital of Dagestan, with “”.Dagestan is not Russia“.

Although this is how Dagestanis feel “second class citizens“, Ter warns that there is no strong support for “wanting to leave Russia.” But this analyst thinks it is predictable that if a conscription wave similar to that of September 2022 re-experiences, it is predictable that Russia will protest most of the same “Dagestan and Kabardino-Balkaria”, who at that time already complained most energetically.

In other parts of the Caucasus, a certain complaint towards Moscow. In the case of republics forming part of the old nation, circassia There is slight discontent with –Adygea, Kabardino-Balkaria and Karachevo-Circassians. Circassian genocide The 19th century, when Russia neither recognized nor apologized. Circassian journalist Artur Kencheshayov admits, not before looking around to see who was listening, that “it is a bit complicated to explain this issue, a disaster for the Circassian people, even if it happened in the 19th century (…). This is a controversial issue and Nalchik activists denounced their failure to commemorate their ancestors on the Circassian day of mourning.

Disputes between regions

There is also tension between different cities in this region, which is located on the border between Eastern Europe and Western Asia. Among them, the one who has the worst relationship with his other neighbors, Chechnya. Talk to any resident of other republics to find out. “Chechnya? better not to go“We don’t want to do business with them,” explains Ajmed, a taxi driver from Ingushetia. “People are disappearing there, it’s best not to step foot in that republic,” says Amina from North Ossetia. Ingushetia, Chechnya’s neighbor to the west, saw how the war between this republic and Moscow spread over its territory between 2007 and 2015 and still remembers what happened to Ali Astamirov. missing since 2003when he was kidnapped by a group of men in Nazran.

Another of the regional republics, North Ossetia she was kidnapped from her school feedIslamist militants, who wanted the independence of Chechnya as an Islamic emirate, took the children hostage and took over the school. In this attack, 333 people died, including 188 children. The brutality of the special forces and the chaos that took place on the day of the attack -the parents of the students participating in the attack with their own firearms, causing casualties as a result of friendly fire- increased the death toll rapidly. Ossetia itself clashed in an armed conflict with its eastern neighbor, Ingushetia, in the 1990s. Ossetian paramilitaries and Ingusheti regular forcesleft at least 500 dead and more than 50,000 internal refugees. He also keeps his pulse Georgia Due to the conflict between Tbilisi and the rebel zone South OssetiaIt wants to join its “brothers” in North Ossetia, although the international community continues to recognize it as part of Georgia’s territory.

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