Contrary to what was envisaged and experienced in other crises, the back-default of bank loans did not increase during the crisis. Pandemic And inflation shock of the last three years. In fact, despite the relentless climb of Euribor, mortgage carried out in March 2.1%lowest level since June 2008 (The dawn of the Great Financial Crisis). However bankssavings banks and credit cooperatives hidden increased risk Households cannot pay their debts. Thus, at the end of March, businesses were mortgaged for their value. 25,809 million in euros private surveillance Due to the high risk of nonpayment, 3,050 million and 13.4% more 112 million from a year ago and 0.43% more than in December, according to data from the Bank of Spain.
Banking regulations take credit into account delayed or questionable collection those who accumulate too much 90 days without paying installments or presenting very clear indications that the customer’s solvency is deteriorating (for example, a company’s negative justice). It also obliges businesses to consider. private surveillance loans with default risk increased significantly, but does not meet the requirements to be considered a criminal. In general, they include carriers. 30 to 90 days unpaid. These are the ones that grow up, which is a Major indicator the increasing difficulties many households are having to pay off their mortgages.
In its first report on the financial situation of households and companies, the Bank of Spain released this Thursday, “some of them” are unequivocally underlined. signs of deterioration credit quality in loans extended to families due to the increase in loans under special supervision” improve one’s wealth gross since the end of last year “Moderate” inflation. improvement of their income and to a lesser extent reduce debtthe relationship between debt and disposable income 2003 levels. However, “despite” families with debts variable interest rate, and especially lower rentsIf they had, they would have had greater difficulties in meeting their debt payments or other expenses”.
Less default, more caution
This overdue mortgagesThus, 3 billion 84 million euros fell in the year until March. 10,601 million. However, the parallel increase in the number of those under special surveillance, problem mortgage or inefficient for banks (delayed plus private oversight) 36,410 million. In total mortgage rate, default rate decreased 2.7% to 2.1%as special prudence increases 4.5% to 5.2%so the total stays around 7.3%. All loans under special supervision will be undue, but some will expire, making the rate predictable. blackberries started to grow throughout the year.
The biggest impact of the rise 4.5 points registered by euribor Since the end of 2021, it is not yet finished, although it is in its final stage. The largest increases in quotas, more than three percentage points plus the difference, have suffered and will suffer. 2,775 million credits (70% of the total) analyzed with Euribor data from last October to June. Normally, Euribor two months ago is used as a reference, with the largest quota increases starting in 2019. December and will probably continue until august. Then they will tend softenbut in any case quotas they will continue to rise in the previously recorded increases, they will continue with these increases mortgage printing. It is explained in this context. intersection of offers who is starting matches Before the elections to be held on the 23rd.
remaining credits
The deterioration in the solvency of households is also experienced in Turkey. your remaining creditsthose who want to buy their goods consumption permanent or financial excursions, education or purchase values, For example. In the one year to March, the default of these loans decreased by 1,777 million and 22.5%. 6.103 million. But those under special surveillance increased even more, to 2,271 million, and 33%. 9,072 millionnon-performing loans totaled 494 million, an increase of 3.3% 15.175 million.
In fact, the increase More pronounced since December7.6% and 1.075 million, which is a trend change Crime in this segment fell from 7% to 5.3% in one year, but the rate of private surveillance increased from 6% to 8% and with it the amount recovered. from 13% to 13.3%, unlike mortgages that remain stable for now. Mortgage installments are also the last installments that families stop paying, so they are probably guilt grows earlier on the rest of your loans.
Reduction in non-performing loans and corporate oversight
Unlike households, there is no deterioration in solvency in business loans. “The proportion of financially vulnerable companies would continue to fall and there is no sign of a significant deterioration in the credit quality of companies,” the Bank of Spain said in its report on Thursday. Thus, both default (4,252 million and 16% to 22,117 million and 4.6%) and private surveillance (9,536 million, 17% to 46,231 million and 9.7%). An improvement experienced not only by large companies, but also by SMEs and self-employed people whose defaults fell from 7.4% to 6.6% and loans under special supervision fell from 14.1% to 11.8%. “The declines have become more pronounced in the sectors most affected by the pandemic, whose solvency has improved significantly since 2022, when economic activity returned to normal following the lifting of mobility restrictions,” the supervisor said.
“The economic situation of the companies continued to show a positive development overall, although there was some heterogeneity by sector. Thus, according to the Quarterly Balance Sheet, business surpluses increased in the first quarter of 2023, driven by economic growth. The profitability of companies will be at higher levels than before the pandemic.The Bank of Spain announced that the higher costs of paying off debt will slow the growth in company profits.