Spain’s economy shakes weight loss symptoms especially in the second half of the year landing consumption families and households. As a result, growth for this year Between 1.9% and 2.1%According to Esade economic and financial report for the second half of this year prepared by EsadecPol.
HE Bank of Spain, Like other research organizations and services, a few days ago it raised its 2023 forecast to 2.3%, seven-tenths from last March, even higher than the Government’s estimate of 2.1%.
Esade’s calculations, measuring the development of the economy in real time, providing 0.6% growth in the second halfAs with the first one, the person in charge revealed Manuel Hidalgo.
A fluctuating evolution with May rising and June with lower-than-expected activity, the range is between 1.9% and 2.1% as of today, but has even reached 2.2 by last month’s slowdown. % or 2.3% according to Hidalgo.
This investment and export After experiencing real ups and downs in the economy due to the pandemic, they have become engines of Spanish growth today. war in ukraine and the resulting increase in inflation, from toni roleAssadEcPol manager.
International context, with youUSA that can enter recession in the second half of the year and one Weak growth throughout the euro arealess than 1% Josep ComajuncosaAssad professor.
security vulnerabilities
Despite the good growth rate of the Spanish economy, vulnerabilities remain. high indebtedness, low efficiency“more or less GDP per capita same as 2005He explained Roldán and his reforms that “there is still a long way to go”.
next to you inflation and consequent loss of purchasing power of wagesIt also affects the loss of growth rate at the global level. their rise interest rates. Comajuncosa underlines that the economy, which had a good start to the year, started to slow down in the second quarter, which was affected by the low increase in loan demand, among other factors. And as a result of price increases, lower consumption.
lower consumption
on the Spanish scale, contraction of consumption by families and households Inflation-affected wages and rising interest rates lower the rate of loan requests. But there are areas with better evolution, for example purchase of vehicles or consumer durablesdriven by an attractive labor market.
Hidalgo notes that there is a risk in the second semester in Spain. slowdown in the service industry. The real-time economy monitoring method shows this for activity as a whole, except for the industrial production index, which was positive in May.
Detected in recent weeks a certain cooling of the economy due to indicators on trade and consumption. Credit is shrinking, especially for housing, but so is consumer credit. According to Hidalgo, demand for new loans is generally lower than depreciation, which predicts a slowdown in growth.