HE labor market It left obvious signs of cooling in Spain in June. It continues to create jobs, although it has slowed for several months and fueled the uncertainty about how the labor force indicators will develop in the second half of the year. Until now, the profession has lived in a virtuous circle, recording one of the best sources in its history for the quantity and quality of contracts.
However, suspicions of a harsh winter after this fertile spring have risen, and this can already begin with July data. Is the Spanish labor market facing a cycle change? Or will the June stumble be just that, and will companies continue their upward trend in the months ahead?
To what extent is the job punctured?
Spain posted an increase in June 54,000 employees compared to May. Weaker-than-expected performance in the hospitality, agriculture and construction sectors partly explains why growth has been the most moderate since 2015. However, the balance remains positive, allowing for a new record in the number of active employees due to accumulated inertia. up to total 20.8 million participants. Never before have so many people worked in Spain at the same time.
The labor market expansion cycle has come a long way since the ‘crack’ of the pandemic, but each new step costs more than the last. To put it in perspective, twice as many jobs were created in June 2022 and four times more in 2021. The volume of jobs created this month is also below the average of the five years before covid.
After applying the seasonally adjusted data filter, i.e. removing the cyclical component that could distort the comparison, the final data will be worse. According to him, they lost in June. 20,119 employeeswas weighed down by the poor performance of construction and accommodation services. It is the first red number in 12 months.
Historically, the second half of the year is usually worse than the first half. While 523 thousand 418 people were employed in the first six months of 2022, 52 thousand 58 people were lost in the second month.
How does unemployment develop?
Unemployment, on the other hand, recorded a new decline of 50,268 people. 2.68 million unemployed throughout Spain. It’s the lowest figure in the last 15 years, but still one of the highest in the entire European Union, according to data released this Tuesday by the Ministries of Labor and Social Security. However, the rate of decline has slowed, as the usual thing before covid was that unemployment fell significantly more. 2014-2019 average approx. 103,494 people.
Will unemployment continue to fall in the second half or will it recover? While historically the second semester has usually gone worse than the first semester, it will depend on a variety of factors. In 2019, pre-Kovid unemployment increased by 147 thousand 919 people in the second half of the year, while it decreased by 186 thousand 611 people in the first half. In 2022, this rate was -42.929 in the second half and -225,323 in the first half.
evolution hiring will be the key. Part of the slowdown can be explained by the improvement in performance. stability In other words, the storms have weighed in as there are more permanent contracts, making the hiring evolution more explosive. It falls less in times of crisis and rises less in times of prosperity.
increased weight discontinuous constantWhen they cease to be active, they are neither counted as employed nor unemployed, which may have an impact in the future. And in the second half of the year turn to lower affiliates, but not to unemployment.
Unemployment data will also have an impact. expectations, because the better the perception of the economy and the higher the perceived probability of finding a job, the more people who do not even try now will sign up for unemployment lists. And that will reveal new unemployed in the statistics. Likewise, if prospects are bad, those who can enroll may not do so and may partially reduce the rise in unemployment figures.
And self-employed?
The group of self-employed workers recorded the first half of 2023 almost flat. It started January with troop losses, and timid increases have been recorded since then. Affiliates are launching a new contribution system, and this has created reluctance—like any change—to sign up among some of the most dispersed self-employed potentials. An environment of uncertainty may also require the opening of new activities.
Trade is becoming one of the most affected activities, with the loss of nearly 20,000 self-employed people. Agriculture (-2,953) and Manufacturing Industry (-3,019) also have bad records.
How does it affect the quality of the profession?
Regardless of whether more or less jobs are created in a month, the trend in the labor market is that the quality of the new job is maintained compared to previous months. Four out of 10 new contracts signed Undefined, while the rate was 1 in 10 before labor reform. What drove the temporary rates down? Percentage of affiliates, as highlighted by Social Security in its note provisional agreement It remained at a record low of 14% in June, less than half of what was recorded before the reform (30%).
In this sense, the groups most affected by temporary employment are those who benefit most from the decrease in temporary employment. Between under 30The temporary employment rate was reduced by 31 points from 53% to 22% compared to the pre-reform.
Do all regions play the same?
The second half of the year tends to affect the most tourism-dependent autonomous communities more because they tend to get stronger in the first half. Currently, Catalonia is taking over this year between the country’s two economic engines. This was the autonomous community that provided the most employment to the overall Spanish economy during the month of June, creating three times more jobs than Madrid, the other engine in the country.
A maintained rate for the first six months of 2023. The labor market in the capital was relatively a hit in the early stages of the pandemic, but that’s not the case this year. In the first period of 2023, Catalonia generated 153,980 Social Security participants for 48,627 people from the Community of Madrid.