While the 12-month Euribor closed June at 4,007% monthly, which marks the first time this barrier has been breached since 2008, it was at a daily rate of 4,134% after this Friday and must be confirmed by the Bank of Spain, according to data compiled by Europe Press. Thus, the index reached the reference interest rates of 4% for the euro area, following the 25 basis points increase implemented by the European Central Bank (ECB) in the middle of this month.
This level represents an increase of about 0.15 points compared to May. most variable mortgage– 3,862%. It also means that it will continue at its highest level since November 2008, when it closed with 4,350%, increasing by 3,155 points compared to June 2022.
This means that a contracted person 150.000 Euro variable mortgage over 30 years and 0.99% plus Euribor, and as it has to review its interest rate in June, it will see an increase in its mortgage payment of approximately 261 euros per month. In absolute terms, it would go from around 542 euros per month to just over 800 euros. This increase in the cost of the mortgage payment will mean an additional expenditure of 3,135 Euros per year for families.
Uploads in the coming weeks
Experts expect Euribor to continue rising in the coming weeks, although they expect the increase to gradually decrease or stabilize before reaching an all-time high of 5.393% recorded in July 2008.
According to XTB expert Joaquín Robles, the index will continue to rise in the coming weeks, although the bullish path is “increasingly limited”. Despite the ECB’s intention to continue raising interest rates to reduce inflation, rapid monetary tightening will continue to weaken outlook and it can determine the next decisions.” In this way, he predicts that Euribor will move between 4.20% and 4.30% in August.
Kelisto includes forecasts from various institutions and organizations and states that by the end of 2023, the indicator may be in the range of 3.44% to 4%. “Funcas and Asufin forecast the highest figures for year-end at 4%, while Bankinter forecasts Euribor at 3.57% and Caixabank at 3.44%,” says the comparator.
Simone Colombelli, manager of iAhorro Mortgages, sees it as “very likely” for Euribor to skyrocket and the first declines to occur within a few months. “In this first half of 2023, Euribor is stabilizing and has increased by between one and two tenths as usual before the outbreak of war between Russia and Ukraine,” the comparator explains.
“We haven’t seen for a long time the increases we saw last summer, especially between August and September 2022, with a one-point difference between one month’s data and the next month’s data, and that’s very good news. A spokesperson for iAhorro assured Euribor that it is in the stabilization phase.
They see a similar situation from HelpMyCash. In the coming months, this benchmark’s experts point out that it is “likely” that the index will continue to rise, given the European Central Bank’s intention to raise rates again in July. Recall that Mario Draghi, the former head of the ECB, said a few weeks ago that “we are heading towards a world of higher interest rates” because inflation will not fall in the medium term due to the possible increase in public spending. defensive and ecological transition and energetic.
“These statements are a real bombshell for many. If we put them down to the world, the message is clear: We could enter a period of high interest rates and stay that way for a long time. For many, interest rates would rise. As in history, they peaked quickly and fell after the coup. But they were both political and political. The economic situation has changed. It is clear that we are at the end of 0% rates and there can be life with rates between the new normal. 3% and 4%”, parse it from this comparator.